Replies to post #508 on Moydow Mines fka MOY

[amarksp]

Valuation estimate on 2% NSR=US$8M
or about US$.29 per share

Ntotoroso is the larger of the two (Lassonde said initial work suggested $500 million would be spent on developing two mines, which together would produce 700,000 ounces), so let's say 400,000 ounces per year. Royalty would not begin until 3 years plus 1 year of construction.

To make it easy, $375 gold 400K ounces * 2% NSR = US$3.0M

$3.0M/28.4M shares = US$.105 per share per year starting 2008

Further assuming 3.2M total ounces and 8% discount (5 years royalty received 2008-2012 of $3.0M), the net present value = US$9.3M or US$.33 per share

Assuming 2.8M total ounces and 8% discount (4 years royalty received 2008-2011 of $3.0M), the net present value = US$7.8M or US$.27 per share

Assuming 2.8M total ounces, $425 gold, and 8% discount (4 years royalty received 2008-2011 of $3.4M), the net present value = US$8.2M or US$.29 per share

Assuming 1 year construction delay on above, NPV=$7.5M

FWIW, using an 8% discount on a gold royalty (i.e. realy money) seems high, but market analysts would likely use 8% or more.

Based on above, US$8M seems fully valued. To realize cash today MOY would likely have to sell at a 10% discount, or more...