RETA:
I'm following it very loosely now. My general impression of the management is not flattering. I think they're the typical, cynical management team that will try to draw everything out while collecting a paycheck... for years.
For that reason, I've stepped back a bit and have not been following too closely. The Lariat trial was such a mess that I don't think Catalyst will show anything. But the treatment period is short enough that they may escape a safety signal; on that we agree. As for cardinal, I do not know if it has any interim analyses. I've not dug in to try and find out the specifics.
Given the safety signal with bardoxolone (and their dud of a follow-on compound), I agree with you that RETA is a good long term short. I think timing it may be frustrating because management will try to pass things off as equivocally as possible. Probably the best way to play RETA is to short it tomorrow at the open and then not check it again until 5 years from now. Hopefully by then all the acetylcholine has been used up and the legs on the cockroach are no longer squirming.
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