Replies to post #433 on Elements Rogers Intl Commodity Index (RJA)

[wow_happens28]

Yep, that was a months worth of volume in one day and way above yesterday too. If Horseman Global, the worlds most bearish hedge fund is right, accelerating decline in the dollar and inflation.

As it is, why is RJA lower than 1 year ago when gasoline is 12% higher than last year and farming is somewhat energy intensive as well as shipping to the mills. Plus the dollar is already 10% lower than last year. A lower dollar makes it cheaper for countries with stronger currencies to buy our grains, etc.
I feel RJA is manipulated down. I have no way of checking this out on RJA, but stocks funds at the bottom of bear markets can be undervalued buy 5% or more. At the top's, overvalued. I suspect RJA is undervalued compared to the value of it's holdings. AND prices for the food commodities are reported to be at or below cost for farmers as well. The new US Drought Monitor looks drier than the one you post of last weeks, that you posted a few days ago at Water.

Horseman Global Hedge Fund story>>>
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-18/worlds-most-bearish-hedge-fund-has-stunning-theory-what-happens-next-dollar

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=w1

https://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=RB

[wow_happens28]

$RJA, Nice gain with the falling dollar. Lower dollar makes it cheaper for other countries to buy our food commodities and makes it more costly to import from countries with stronger currencies. Thus higher commodity prices.

https://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=DX

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RJA&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p49560099375

[wow_happens28]

Big Changes Underfoot In Commodities ETF And ETNs

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4139563-big-changes-underfoot-commodities-etf-etns?sht=p32hm7&shu=448cd#comment-77464097

Summary
The appetite for commodities products rises with prices.

GLD is the gold standard; USO has been problematic.

Contango and backwardation are issues.

Attention to the forward curve - the Teucrium example.

Lots of changes in the weeks ahead - get educated!

Since reaching bottoms in late 2015 and early 2016, the prices of many commodities have come storming back. Economic growth around the world and optimism about the future have supported the raw material prices, particularly in the industrial sector. Metals, minerals, and the price of crude oil have moved appreciably higher over the past two years, and many remain close to recent highs. Two industrial commodities, palladium and lumber, recently posted new record-highs.

At the same time, favorable weather conditions around the world have kept a lid on the prices of many agricultural commodities, which have not participated in the latest commodities boom. However, with few exceptions over the past two decades, the prices of most agricultural products have exhibited a pattern of higher lows which is a reflection of rising demand for food around the world because of demographics.

With the stock market roaring and posting new highs on almost a daily basis, some investors are looking to diversify their portfolios. After nearly a decade of accommodative monetary policy and with an unprecedented amount of liquidity floating around the system, the fear of increasing inflationary pressures is causing many investors to turn towards the commodities market. Commodities became more mainstream instruments since the introduction of ETF and ETN products that seek to replicate the price action in the volatile and highly leveraged futures markets. ETF and ETNs have brought the opportunity for investors to participate directly in their standard investment accounts as they trade on stock exchanges. At the beginning of 2018, those companies offering these vehicles appear to be refining their offerings to prepare for more activity in the sector as demand for commodity-based investments is on the rise.

[wow_happens28]

Drought conditions worsening a bit. But, wih spring coming, that can change in a hurry.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx

[wow_happens28]

$RJA Another big green bar, 2nd biggest this month on a day most food futures were slightly down. Looks like 2 - 80,000 share trades. Some big money moving in all month. Drought forming, dollar going to fall more, Korea crisis? Just maybe somebody knows something I don't. Volume was like 20,000 shares daily most of last year, 201,000 today and 1,300,000 January 17th.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RJA&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p12888518579

https://www.finviz.com/futures.ashx

Closed above a resistance line of $6.15

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RJA&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p62835065198

Dry, dry, dry, but I doubt big money is buying because of drought unless there is something to climate change and chem trails, and I don't think this is the case, but current dryness is a plus, for now.

https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/ca/redding?cm_ven=localwx_10day

https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/ne/north-platte?cm_ven=localwx_10day

https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/ne/omaha/68102?cm_ven=localwx_10day

[wow_happens28]

$RJA It looks like blast off day to me,.

https://www.finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RJA&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p49560099375

[wow_happens28]

$RJA IGC lowers grains production outlook

This is the same folks who raised estimates on November 28, 2017. Argentina, Brazil and South Africa must have got dryer than they knew then.

http://www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/World_Grain_News/2018/02/IGC_lowers_grains_production_o.aspx?ID=%7BBD634DB6-1AB5-43C6-93E1-673A25EF0A49%7D&cck=1

LONDON, ENGLAND — The International Grains Council (IGC) on Feb. 22 lowered its estimate for total grains production in 2017-18 to 2.094 billion tonnes, down from 2.1 billion tonnes in January and down from 2.14 billion estimated for 2016-17. Total consumption held steady at 2.104 billion tonnes.
The IGC said the decline in production primarily reflected poorer maize output prospects in Argentina, Brazil and South Africa.

The IGC estimated world wheat production in 2017-18 at 757 million tonnes, unchanged from January and up from 754 million tonnes estimated in 2016-17. World wheat ending stocks were estimated at 254 million tonnes, unchanged from January and up from 240 million tonnes in 2016-17.

“The projection for wheat points to a tighter market, as a drop in output and solid demand may result in the first reduction in stocks in six seasons,” the IGC said. “Global wheat trade could be a record, including bigger purchases by India and Iran.”

The IGC estimated 2017-18 maize production at 1.048 billion tonnes, down from 1.054 billion tonnes in January and compared with 1.088 billion tonnes in 2016-17. The consumption projection was flat at 1.068 billion tonnes.

Soybean production for 2017-18 was estimated at 347 million tonnes, down 2 million tonnes from 349 million tonnes in January, and down from 350 million tonnes in 2016-17. The consumption projection also was lowered, to 349 million tonnes from 352 million tonnes. The IGC said global trade is expected to total 153 million tonnes, the same as forecast in January.

The 2017-18 world outturn for rice is expected to total 484 million tonnes, unchanged from January. Consumption is expected to increase, to 486 million tonnes from 485 million tonnes.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) increased 5%, the IGC said.

“The IGC GOI gained by a net 5% since the January GMR, reaching a seven-month peak,” the IGC said. “Apart from rice, which weakened after an earlier sharp rally, all of the components of the index moved higher. Advances were mainly linked to expanding droughts in Argentina and the southern U.S. Plains, but with robust export demand also contributing to gains in some countries.”