I agree with everything you said. One addition would be that we have large (relatively speaking) options action at the $12.50 and $15, that expire today. As volume has been decent but not heavy in anticipation of the next earnings announcement, I think it is a bit easier to push the price around. First, help drive it up to $17, sell those in the money calls and then try to push it down a bit.
Just speculation on my part
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