It is not that surprising that they did not find oil when the chance of success was only 18.8%. What is surprising is that Tarach was the best prospect they could find to drill in that block. Most would not have even drilled it. I suspect that is why CEPSA bailed and why ERHC cannot find another partner(if they even still control the block).
What is also unbelievable is that ERHC would hide the chance of success of Tarach after disclosing it to a select few at a shareholder meeting. And that some were openly advocating to keep it hidden from everyone that didn't already know.
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