I use the leveraged ETFs and ETNs, also. Like I said, UCO is my favorite, but I have traded many of the 2X and 3X leveraged products depending on how I like the Call prices for various expiration dates.
Oil is so manipulated it will drive you crazy if you follow the fundamentals (which I do), but it is usually pretty easy to follow the trend when you have been following for a long time.
I only short oil for short-term trades when I think the market hasn't priced in an anticipated big rise in inventory or a meeting date or some other imminent event. If you short oil just because the fundamentals say it should go down, you will get burned. When price gets low... buy Calls 6 to 9 months out and you can't lose if you pick an exit and don't get too greedy.
I totally botched this run. Doubled my money on OCT Calls when I could have had 8X profits on JAN Calls. I was looking for hurricane season as an exit point, but it is still running. Will be interested in hearing your take on the next bottom. Will it be mid-$40s this summer? Maybe mid-$30s? Will it top out at $70 and only drop to mid-$50s? Can't tell yet. I just know by trading activity when it is switching from bear to bull and usually get in within 5% - 10% of low.
I started my last run when WTI was at $45. Most were calling for a drop to the mid-$30s, but I didn't think it would get that low. Bottomed at $42.50 in June and most people missed an entry when it started rising from there.
Will be fun to watch.
Breaking with an on-topic note... I was waiting for a drop like that. I bought some more at $2.18. Hope they come out with something positive before trial concludes.
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