It is tough not to second guess but it is human nature. You know what can happen and if the worst case happens and we are wrong and the stock goes $19+ in the next 5 weeks, you just make a ton of money instead of a shit ton of money and nothing stops you from getting back in by waiting for a pullback and starting a new position.
The catalysts that I see can launch the price is some HUGE upgrades and/or NGL announces a huge increase in the div. I went back 5 years and I did not see any huge increase in the div, it was usually between .02 - .035. As far as upgrades go, the one you posted earlier today was a confident upgrade that I really liked but I find most analysts are generally timid and do not like putting out aggressive/big predictions, they like to play it safe and I think it will be that way with NGL. It was only a few months ago that bloggers and such were really down on NGL and to do a 180 on that will take more time (IMO). If you go to the NGL board on seeking alpha, Jugs (Len) schooled the blogger on NGL (just 3 weeks ago), I mean spanked his ass on the boards. This is one of the "experts" posting, timid and afraid of betting on energy. The great thing was, it wasn't even an angry spanking, more like the kind where you wait for your two year old to step into the street and administering a smack on the bottom for his own good. Wack, Wack, Wack.
Just for the record, I never spanked my daughter. When she was 12, I did take her bedroom door off the hinges for her slamming it in my face. I told her she hurt the doors feelings and she could have it back once she apologized and the door accepted her apology. I think that was about a month but she never slammed her bedroom door again.
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