jyyoo; The only thing I know (with 100% certainty btw) is that the share count on Merkur is down ca 450k shares since December 20th. It could of course be short covering, but then it must be covering of naked shorts since the official shorted shares as of December 15th was only 27k.
As TS pointed out, this isn't arbitrage since the PPS on Merkur is higher than the PPS on OTC. My speculation, based on that Solomon said he wanted to repay one loan ahead of maturity to show that the shares would be returned - and the mysterious loan D'Alessandro gave to SIAF in Q4/17 with a due date next month - is that SIAF either has or is about to repay Loan 1 (if they don't repay Loan 2 then we might not see a big reduction in collateral shares since SIAF hasn't issued shares in 1:1 with the PPS).
What I can't wrap my mind around is the loan from D'Alessandro, i.e the short term of it. Why is it due next month, one month before Loan 1 is due? My speculation is that either the TRW-loan is 100% and will be paid on or before due-date of the loan from D'Alessandro, or that D'Alessandro has given a convertible loan that will be converted into those 320k shares (to repay Loan 1???) However, didn't Solomon say that SIAF has found a more conventional loan already? Could it be this loan from D'Alessandro (where the filing is a bit misleading and that it is the shares (for interest???) that is due next month, and that the loan itself isn't due then???)
BTW; The current sharecount on Merkur as of this morning (well, morning in Norway) is 13 744 744 (up ca 11k as "predicted" in another post I had yesterday) while it was 14 188 679 on December 20th
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