Replies to post #1679 on Conatus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (CNAT)

[Theo]

This has been my premise for some time and is what I heard in a webcast of a CC awhile back. In other words, IF the Trial of IDN-6556 in Post Orthotopic Liver Transplant for Chronic HCV (POLT-HCV-SVR) is a success, that portends success for the rest of the trials going forward- (IN BOLD/UNDERLINED) From SA this a.m.:

"TC: My best idea for 2018 would be Conatus Pharmaceuticals (CNAT). The reason why is because it has a pivotal phase 2 trial result to report in the first half of 2018. It is a major inflection point for the company, because it will prove whether or not its drug emricasan is effective in liver diseases. A good set of results from the phase 2 POLT-HCV-SVR study will likely result in the stock trading higher. It is one of the few biotech companies that is going after both NASH Cirrhosis and NASH fibrosis. There are plenty of other biotech companies going after NASH fibrosis - maybe 100 or more (estimate) - but NASH cirrhosis is an untapped field.

The only other player that I know of going after NASH Cirrhosis is Galectin Therapeutics (GALT), which reported its data. The problem is that it showed that it might achieve statistical significance in a sub-population of NASH cirrhosis patients, but failed to achieve its primary endpoint in the phase 2 trial for the entire NASH cirrhosis population. That means it will have to run a large phase 3 trial to determine if its drug GR MD 02 can help improve the liver of these patients with NASH cirrhosis.

That leaves Conatus as one of the few biotechs left to target NASH cirrhosis. If the results are highly positive, it will not only prove that emricasan works in liver diseases, but it will also validate the rest of the pipeline targeting other liver indications. The other three targets are NASH fibrosis, NASH cirrhosis portal hypertension, and NASH cirrhosis itself. I feel that Conatus has a good shot at succeeding, and is probably a big reason why Novartis has already partnered with Conatus for its emricasan program. If the phase 2 results come out positive, that will lead Novartis to be responsible for the phase 3 study for that indication, and all other liver indications for emricasan."