Replies to post #30402 on MGT Capital Investments Inc. (MGTI)

[Imperial Whazoo]

Here's how I see it. Use MGTI as an example.

I use a real time charting package used by lots of people to chart real time data.

I set my screens up like this:
I have a 1 period, a 13 period window and a 1 day Ichimoku up. Every one of them can change the displayed time frame to 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 10, 13, 15, 26, 30, 39, 65, 78, 130, and 195 periods because thats what I set the chart defaults to. These are all factors of 390 minutes, which is how many minutes there are in a trading day.

So, looking at the 1 minute chart, you see a huge (640.5K) volume bar in a single minute at 11:57 AM central. The price action confirmed this was to be understood to be a buy rather than a sell event (even though its true that every buy consists of a sell and visa versa) for one reason: price climbed after that event and never looked back. There have been NO similarly sized, concise volume events since then. Its safe to read this as somebody buying in one quick pull of the trigger and not looking back.

Since then, the waveform is a stairstep where every multi-minute increase in volume that happen contiguous to each other ARE NOT followed by a similarly sized set of contiguous sell bars.

The idea is that volume goes up for several minutes. You can see it in the histogram along the bottom. If equal volume comes back out after that contiguous multi-minute volume event, the momo is NOT up or down. Its sideways. If a multi-minute volume event is over balanced to the up side, its a buy event. If its over balanced to the down side, its a sell event. Volume is like a fingerprint telling you what the momo is.

Then, once the chart declares its internal momo, you use standard charting tools to lay out guidelines by which to gain focus as price navigates around. Gaps, trends, hammer candles, hanging men.... that kind of things.

Thats what I did in my earlier MGTI posts both yesterday and today. The world saw a big event in BTC prices and all the stocks reacted, MGTI included. So I looked at the charts, saw volume events happening everywhere, went to the stocks I'm following, and began to try to see whether the underlying BTC event was long duration, short duration, or not clear yet as to its lenght and/or direction. And also, to see if the reaction on the crypto's I watch generated tell tale evidence of whether that particular crypto stock was internally strong compared to other cryptos I'm watching. The idea is to try to have the market tell me who the REAL leaders are.

I treat MGTI like an old fashioned open outcry pit. People yelling at each other to buy or sell and signalling volume intent back & forth.

Thats why the huge buy at 11:57 AM (that has not seen a reciprocal sell volume event), and each step up since then, itrinsically mean that the momo in the MGTI "pit", as it were, is up.


Some guy across the pit bought a huge chunk.... and the rest of the pit started screaming "BUY!".

For the moment, that is.

You gotta "listen" to the volume happening in the pit. Let it tell you whats going on.

MGTI got bought at 11:57 AM and it has yet to break the "fever" of that volume event.

Thats how I look at the MGTI chart (and pretty much all of them, as well).

I'm not assuming some kind of pattern balance over time or any % chances of certain thing hapening. I'm reading the pattern of the volume events on the chart in various time frames.

Volume is the key, not chart patterns. Volume events tell you the internal truth about what is happening in real time. Thats what charts are for.

Thats why I think MGTI will hold for the immediate future. By which I mean that, at any moment, another set of volume events could happen and the next interperable "pattern" will have self-declared

As for whether its safe to hold any crypto stock over the next three days when the rest of the world continues to trade Bitcoin 24/7...... I'm neither saying to buy nor sell. I make no recommendations. I read the charts based on volme. And anyway, I'm a DAY trader. I don't come into the day pre-deciding what to buy. I keep a list of candidate stocks and I cruise them constantly looking for volume events. When I see one, I buy it or sell it or do nothing at all.

I'm a DAY trader and when that volume event in MGTI happened at 11:57 AM, it became a trade for the day. ACTUALLY: IT BECAME A TRADE FOR SOME UNKNOWN PORTION OF THE DAY.

Simple as that.

Hope that helps

IW

[Full Contact Yoga]

It's more syllogistic, more of an "if, then" scenario. By looking at past actions, you have an idea of how the stock reacted, up or down, good or bad. It gives you a picture of what has occurred and what might occur, but not what will occur definitively. Huge moves are generally followed by corrections. This came back a bunch today, as it should have, but reset pretty decently. New highs have been set, so they'll remain as part of the picture in some capacity no matter what the PPS does. I've watched $3.18 forever, from numbers way lower, it was tested a few times, always provided resistance near or below that number. When it finally breached, coupled with IMO ridiculous block chain euphoria, it went bonkers. IMO, this will work its way back down, as will the Blockchain stocks in general, but they will still trade great, just a different range. Just an opinion though, could be super wrong, but the chart among other indicators kind of guides my moves, makes it an educated guess versus blind.