Replies to post #503189 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[ZoZoStockWatch]

Some items I would say about daytrading Don't try to make a living at it in the beginning try to make extra money. Why? Because this takes the pressure off. If you have to make a living at it from the get go the pressure will be to great. Next start out small with small lots try to make 50.00- 100.00 / day. After 6 months of consistent daily gains increase your lot size. You need a good charting system TA I use Esignal I love esignal I understand esignal you may like something else but you have to spend some money to make money Esignal runs me about 180.00/month. You also need news I use briefing.com 26.00/month. or flyonthewall.com. The next thing is you can't use Etrade or Ameritrade for daytrading they are to slow you need IB or MBtrading or any direct access broker. Understanding of TA is very important and reading charts www.stockcharts.com has TA information the best I've seen on candles and all the moving avgs and indicator. Book "High Prbability Trading" by Marcel Link is one I like. I started with 30k now have 150k which makes it much easier but 30k - 50k is good to start. You try to reach a goal each day like I said in the beginning 50-100 then 100-200 and so on. Chart setup I use a 5 min chart next to a 60min chart and also have a daily chart of the stock I'm trading. On my short term charts I keep Bollinger bands 20,2.0 and 5ema 10ema 20ema and a 105ema (HACK) also the RSI 14 on all charts. On my daily charts I keep all the above plus I like the 50sma 50ema 200ema 200sma and an additional set of Bollinge Bands I call them my EBB extended bollinger bands 13,2.618 Learn to look at charts on all time frames even if your a daytrader over the weekend I look at weekly's and monthlys. During the day when your trading you need the $TRIN $TRINQ up at all times. You need the ES futs up the NQ futs up and the QQQQ and I keep a chart of the $COMPQ up to know where we are.

I use to love chess I love trading I put it on the same level. Everyday is different yet the same. You are going to lose money in the beginning I bet 15k I call it tuition.

Hope this helped with some of your questions. Anymore I'd be glad to answer if I can.

Best of luck

Mike

[ZoZoStockWatch]

Here is my daily chart setup just using AAPL for example. On here I have RSI 14 on bottom Bollinger bands solid blue EBB extened bollinger bands Purple dotted 5ema orange 10ema brown 20ema pink 50ema solid blue dotted blue 50sma 200ema black solid 200sma black dotted 105ema green dotted.

Daily chart

[ZoZoStockWatch]

AAPL 5 min for example Bollinger bands Blue solid 5ema orange 10ema brown 20ema Pink RSI 14 on bottom 105ema green dotted.

[ZoZoStockWatch]

AAPL 60min chart same setup as 5min but I always keep both next to each other.

[ZoZoStockWatch]

Some other advice I leftout don't overtrade in a day if you make your money stop trading. If you have a few trades go against you stop for the day. The 60min chart is nice because it can show support and resistance areas for a few days.

The hardest thing about trading is doing nothing and waiting for the right setup to develop. Like Texas Holdem you have to wait for the right cards and position in the game to increase your odds of winning.

Best of luck

[marketmaven]

Merrill's Rosenberg sees 2007 US Recession, 3.6% 10 year yields??

U.S. Slowdown Won't Derail World Economy
September 18, 2006
http://askmerrill.ml.com/res_article/1,2271,19580,00.html

A sharp slowdown in the U.S. economy in 2007 is unlikely to drag the rest of the global economy down with it, according to a research report by Merrill Lynch's global economic team. The good news is that there are strong sources of growth outside the U.S. that should prove resilient to a consumer-led U.S. slowdown.

Merrill Lynch economists expect U.S. GDP growth to slow to 1.9% in 2007, from 3.4% in 2006, but non-U.S. growth is expected to decline by only half a percent (5.2% versus 5.7%). Behind this decoupling is higher non-U.S. domestic demand, a rise in intraregional trade and supportive macroeconomic policies in many of the world's economies. Although some countries appear very vulnerable to a U.S. slowdown, one in five is actually on course for faster GDP growth in 2007. Asia, Japan and India appear well placed to decouple from the United States, though Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore are more likely to be impacted. European countries could feel the pinch, but rising domestic demand in the core countries should help the region weather the storm much better than in previous U.S. downturns. In the Americas, Canada will probably be hit, but Brazil is set to decouple.

U.S. Slowdown Will Be Consumer-Led

The much-vaunted housing market correction, which has finally hit the U.S. economy, has the potential to pull the U.S. to the brink of recession by early 2007. Judging by past experience, housing starts decline by 50% peak-to-trough and the correction lasts well over two years. This time around, the correction has the added twist that housing has become extremely overvalued — by 20% at least and perhaps as much as 40%. Merrill Lynch expects an outright decline in housing prices of about 5% next year.

The combination of the decline in home prices and the slowing in the growth of housing stock is expected to reduce housing wealth by more than US$1 trillion in 2007. This, in turn, will likely mean that U.S. consumers will spend 1% less for most of next year and double that figure if house price falls are more severe.

The only bright spot is business investment, which is set to be robust due to healthy profit margins, high productivity growth and strong corporate balance sheets.

Japan Is Global Star

Japan appears better able to withstand a U.S. slowdown than any other country. For the first time in over a decade, the country's financial system is flush with capital and banks are eager to lend to corporations and households alike. Japan's export markets are far less reliant on the U.S. than they were in the 1990s, with 78% of its goods and services directed toward China and the rest of Asia. In addition, managers are reinvesting in their businesses for growth, which should sharply boost domestic demand. At the same time, Japanese companies are investing heavily in their workforce, forcing down the already low unemployment rate. Household consumption will probably be further boosted by low interest rates and a steady rate of income tax.

The rest of Asia is more closely linked to the fortunes of the global economy. Taiwan — and, to a lesser extent, Hong Kong and Singapore — could find it hard to escape the effects of a U.S. slowdown.

However, the relative robustness of the non-U.S. economy, coupled with supportive macroeconomic policies in the larger Asian countries, should help the region weather slower U.S. growth, especially if the U.S. CAPEX cycle is resilient. Even China, where U.S. exports amount to 8% of GDP, could be resilient if its leaders opt for an aggressive policy response.

Euro Area Could Withstand Slower U.S. Growth

Despite a strong historical correlation between the U.S. and the Euro area's business cycle, the region has a good chance of avoiding the worst effects of a U.S. slowdown. For one thing, the Euro area's GDP growth, though modest, is being driven by stronger domestic demand, not exports. Also, half of all exports are capital goods, which are expected to hold up more strongly than consumer goods. Euro area GDP is set to slow to 2.1% during 2007, from 2.6%, but this is because of the impact on domestic demand of tighter fiscal policy.

Some Emerging Economies Will Feel the Pinch

Slower U.S. growth would impact emerging markets in two ways: directly, through lower demand for emerging-market products, and indirectly, through weaker commodity prices and less abundant liquidity. In broad terms, the latter would have a relatively larger effect within emerging Europe, while lower commodity prices would pose a greater risk to Latin American countries. Latin America is better positioned than in previous U.S. downturns due to greater trade diversification and the wider use of flexible exchange rates. Mexico and Central America are the most sensitive to a U.S. slowdown and, if commodity prices fall, Venezuela, Chile and Ecuador would be hurt. Brazil has a high chance of decoupling from the U.S. due to its relatively low reliance on exports and its current account surplus. Within the emerging economies of Europe, the effect will be more varied. Among the larger countries, Turkey is more vulnerable to a global liquidity crunch, a U.S. slowdown and an interest-rate increase, while Russia is generally well positioned.

Anglo-Saxon Divide in Rates and Currencies

Merrill Lynch economists expect a divergence in the interest rates of those countries that will continue to normalize monetary policy and those which are likely to reverse course on the back of the expected economic slowdown.

Japan and most European and Asian countries are expected to continue to raise interest rates. Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom are expected to keep rates steady. By contrast, our economists expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 125 basis points in 2007.

Broadly speaking Merrill Lynch would thus advise overweighting the fixed-income markets of the United States, Canada, Australia and Turkey, and underweighting Japan, the Euro area and Korea.

Currency performance will also be affected by shifting interest-rate differentials, among other influences. In aggregate, we expect a sizable slide in the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen, the Chinese renminbi and the Scandinavian currencies, but an appreciation against the Australian dollar, the British pound and the Turkish lira.

Implications for Commodity Prices

In 2007, Merrill Lynch expects growth in supply for most major commodities to remain constrained and demand to expand further, albeit at a pace consistent with a deceleration in global economic activity to 4.4%.

Moreover, inventories are still relatively low for some commodities, leaving only a limited cushion against unexpected changes in supply or demand. As a result, Merrill Lynch believes that commodity prices will stay high and volatile, providing a boost to commodity-exporting economies.

Merrill Lynch analysts that contributed to this report include: David Rosenberg, Chief North American Economist; David Wolf, Senior Canadian Economist; Jesper Koll, Chief Japan Economist; Klaus Baader, Chief European Economist; TJ Bond, Chief Asia Pacific Economist; Alex Patelis, Head of Global Foreign Exchange and EMEA Economics; Francisco Blanch, Head of Commodities Research; and Tulio Vera, Chief Global Emerging Markets Macro and Fixed Income Strategist.