China Set To Become More Dependent On Oil Imports
This year, Chinese oil production has further dropped by 4.1 percent between January and October, Michael Lelyveld writes in an analysis in Radio Free Asia. In October alone, China’s crude oil production fell to below 3.8 million bpd.
At the same time, imports are rising and will continue to rise. This year, Chinese oil import reliance is expected to hit 69 percent. According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2017, China’s oil import dependence will rise to 80 percent by 2040, Lelyveld writes.
According to an overview by the U.S. Department of Commerce from July this year, China’s oil import reliance exceeded 65.6 percent in 2016 and is forecast to rise to 80 percent by 2030. By 2020, Chinese consumption of crude oil is expected at 12 million bpd. At the same time, PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC have reduced production from their higher-cost fields in China because they have been unable to compete at oil prices below $50 a barrel. Consequently, domestic oil production fell by 6.9 percent to 3.98 million bpd in 2016, the lower oil prices prompting China to fill its strategic petroleum reserve by importing more, and cheaper, foreign crude oil.
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