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Replies to post #23129 on Market Direction and Stock Trends
11/18/17 11:07 AM
As of the close of Fri. Nov. 17, 2017: Our immediate trend model is bearish . Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 2343379, 2335826 2343379, . Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 2335603. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.
We should see a trend change come this month in Dow Jones Industrials so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 2348525 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 2348525 to 2241600. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
Dow Jones Industrials closed today at 2335824 and is trading up about 18% for the year from last year's closing of 1976260. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past day, following the high established Thu. Nov. 16, 2017.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is bearish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is neutral while the cyclical strength indicator is bullish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of November 6th at 2360212, which was up 29 weeks from the low made back during the week of April 17th. We have seen the market rally for the past week from the low of the week of November 13th, which has been a move of 1.06% percent. Interestingly, the Dow Jones Industrials has been in a bullish phase for the past 11 months since the low established back in November 2016.
Critical support still underlies this market at 2127920 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible.
Diagnostically, my wide-ranging analysis recognizes that the current directional movement since the low made back in August 2015 has been a long-term Bullish trend in Dow Jones Industrials. This trend remain in motion as long as we hold above 1799210 on a monthly closing basis. It is incredibly important to identify the broader trend for that is the underlying tone. It is wise to take position counter-trend only with this understanding of what you are doing.
Consequently, this has been a 8 year rally in motion since 2009. Caution is advisable since this is also 8 years up from the low of given that was the major low 2009. We must pay attention to the closing for this year. If we close lower at year end, beneath 1976260, then we can see a pause in the uptrend into next year. Penetrating intraday last year's low of 1545056 will confirm a serious correction into next year. However, we have rallied to exceed last year's high last month. We need to see a closing above 1998763 at year-end to see a continued rally is possible into next year. Exceeding this year's high next year and holding last year's low intraday will signal the bullish trend is still intact. A breach of last year's low of 1545056 intraday will negate that outcome.
Eyeing the longer term yearly level, we see turning points where highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis should form will be, 2022, 2024 and 2026. Centering on the patterns unfolding, we do see a prospect of a decline moving into 2022 with the opposite trend thereafter into 2024. This pattern becomes a possibility if last year's low of 1545056 is penetrated even intraday. Eyeballing the volatility models suggest we should see a rise in price movement during January. We look to the turning points to ascertain the direction. Volatility targets reflect only volatility. Nonetheless, our Panic Cycle targets for the period ahead to watch are during 2026. Keep in mind that a Panic Cycle differs from just volatility. This can be either an outside reversal or a sharp move in only one direction. Panic Cycles can be either up or down. Watch the oscillators and the reversals to determine the best indication of the potential direction.
Aiming on the immediate momentum is Bullish on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of November 6th's low. This is warning to pay attention since last month had closed higher so the upward momentum is weak on the monthly level. To date, the market has exceeded last year's high of 1998763. In order to maintain an upward advance, we need to close above last year's high at year end. Overall, looking at the weekly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 30 weeks. The last weekly level low was 2037955, which formed during the week of April 17th. The last high on the weekly level was 2360212, which was created during the week of November 6th. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 26 months. The last monthly level low was 1537033, which formed during August 2015. The last high on the monthly level was 2348525, which was created during October.
AI
