married50, yes I have a long position in ZN and have since 2010. So, I've been with them on a few dry wells. I was disappointed in the dry wells of course as it would have been great to have funds to pay college tuition for the kids. Found another way to do that and am learning what the true meaning of "long" investing is.... it might take a long time for the gain!
To answer your first question, I believe there is a 99% chance of commercial oil IF high pressure was encountered after they drilled through the cap rock. And, I believe there is a 90% chance that high pressure was encountered based on their last communication stating they are waiting for well control equipment before resuming drilling and their statements about gas, safety, etc as highlighted in my previous posts. Their stated actions makes sense in a high gas pressure situation and don't make sense otherwise. If high gas pressure was not found, why would they stop drilling just when entering the formation they've been trying so hard to get to, change their casing plan, and decide to upgrade well control?
So, I'm about 90% confident they have oil, or at least a big gas field (gas shows first in an oil field and is necessary to drive the oil from the rock into the wellbore).
With the share price so low this creates a great asymmetric investment. Entering last week I thought my position in ZN was complete and I was waiting for final drill results. Now I'm looking for ways to liquidate other assets and buy more. Disclaimer: Each person must action according to their own convictions as I don't recommend stocks.
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