Replies to post #1227 on Helios and Matheson Analytics Inc (HMNY)

[Tekterra]

I don't disagree there is substantial risk here. If it was a different guy leading MP I'd leave the stock alone. I think Lowe have the business connections and respect of others that he will gain support for what he's trying to accomplish.

My concerns isn't so much on whether Lowe can do the job or not. We know HMNY may need to dilute and raise more money as subscription numbers grow. So it is clear to me the potential is great, but we could face dilution which can drop stock price if nothing to counter dilution.

At the signing of the deal, MP was valued at about 50 million. recent filing MP was valued at 210 million. HMNY advanced 11.5 million instead of the 5 million originally planned since subscription number blew up more than they expected. That to me is an indication that MP will need more funding. And, because of that we can potentially see dilution.

If MP burn rate is high, they will have to offset that cost with other revenue. I'm hoping to get some clarity whether or not they are able to strike more deals with either film makers, or any other advertisement through MP. Annual advertising can cost millions and there is no reason why MP can't take advantage of that as their customer base grow. The question is do they have enough funding to make it to that point when they can start generating revenue from other source other than the membership subscription?

Having experience in restaurant business, $5.95 all you can eat lunch buffet sounds just as bad of a losing business. But, when you got a lot of customers, it tends to even out and actually becomes profitable.

That is an indicator that on average the general public are mostly decent people and not just the smaller percentage that will either abuse or take advantage in a way that might be seen as below average.
Another word, most people in our society isn't so bad.

There will always be that small percentage of people who will abuse the service and take advantages unlike most other people. But, I think over all, MP should be ok.

That's why data mining is valuable when you can see the kind of statistics on how people behave in general. That's hard facts and reliable data a business model can be based on. I think people will be surprised to see the actual financial reports of MP when it becomes available.

I'm cautiously betting a smaller mount for now at around the 9$ mark. Keep in mind MP value went from 50 to 210 million. I see MP value double again by end of December. We should be trading back to 30$ after the deal close. Unless we get some bad news or crazy financing that puts a damper on the stock price. If that does happen, I'm loading more, if not, great stock value is preserved.