Replies to post #122391 on Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[RealDutch]

That's a lot of questions.

Who wants to own SIAF anymore?

That's why I said all along they have to support the PPS after the ex-date. Because we will have lots of sellers. They can't split up the dividend though because the lawyers told them they can't prime the market (according to Dan). So now they will try to time the cash dividends (from SIAF?) after the ex-date. We also have CA and a potential partnership there. Which could be worth more than TRW. So let's see how this plays out.

It is this book value of triway that has decided how much the extra 18% of triway would be worth. correct?

Close. Book value is something like $250M. Appraised value (by an appraisal firm) is $350M. That's because some of the demo farms have a proven history of profitability, therefore received a higher valuation than book value.

SIAF booked a $58M gain last year because their investment in the demo farms was worth more than book value.

So all of this results in SIAF owning 36.6% including the $40M settlement. There are still a few things that have to be settled, like the fish pond. So I think the $350M will go up to perhaps $400M, with SIAF retianing 36.6% of TRW. And the remaining debt owed to SIAF is $18M. Details in the Q3 report.

[ks1977]

Yes, if SIAF distributes half the TRW-shares (like they've promised) then half of the dividends would go to (current) SIAF-shareholders. How does this translate into noone wanting to own SIAF anymore? (although we do need some support for the PPS post ex date!)

SIAF can still give the dividends from it's retained 18.3% to it's shareholders (although it would be half of what it can without the stock dividend), but now SIAF also will have a non-deniable proven record of being extremely generous towards its shareholders... So when SIAF then states that it's preparing a stock-dividend of CA, then the market will KNOW that SIAF means it and respond way better than it has done so far.

Also, after the TRW-financing and/or CA-deal SIAF doesn't need that extra cash from the "lost" TRW-shares :-)

Not sure why you think it is a risk that TRW would not want a loan and/or ipo - why wouldn't the partners want the growth-story (which they have partially paid for already btw) and a decent P/E? Also, it will be difficult to trade TRW-shares before the listing - so SIAF should easily gather most of its current 36.6% voting power through the shareholder's of SIAF and hence not loose any real power if that risk was real.

Also I don't understand your speculations to why SIAF would want a higher valuation of TRW. It is obvious that there were some "power struggle" to how the ownership of TRW would end up, so why would SIAF try to boost the book value of TRW?