Phantom Lord,
First please let me say thank you for the time you put into this, and apologies the late reply, I've been meaning to find time to sit down and look a this properly. The continuum was very helpful and agreed the numbers check out nicely.
Therefore from what I understand we currently essentially have remaining:
- 6 million at 4.5% due 2018, which should still be at the 173 shares per 1000 USD exchange rate
- and then the 4.95 million of 4.5% and 61.7 million at 7.5% both due 2021 and which are both on the higher 1,176 shares per 1000 USD exchange rate.
Previously, PLX exchanged
- 3.6 million of 4.5% due 2022 for Shares
- 10.8 million if 7.5% due 2021 for mostly Cash
So trying to guesstimate what might happen in the future:
1. PLX would get rid of the remaining 6 million at 4.5% due 2018 with shares, as the exchange rate of 173 shares per 1000 USD is not terrible, and then can hold onto the cash they have for a little longer.
-> Thus meaning an additional 1,038,000, (6,000*173), shares of common stock coming into the market?
This would also mean we only need to worry about 2021/2022 as the next deadline.
2. Then initially focus on exchanging a portion of the 61.7 million 7.5% due 2021. One might assume this would happen initially in 10 million tranches then grow to 20 million tranches, using a mix of cash thanks to Cheisi (upfront and milestone payments and maybe even royalties from sales by 2021 to PLX) and Shares. Maybe exchanging more in shares to begin with and then more in cash as money comes in. OR PLX could renegotiate the note exchange again for a later date with new terms to hold onto the cash it has going forward.
Thus would you agree that one might expect a relatively near-term "dilution" of 1,038,000 shares from the exchange of the 2018 due notes (which isn't too bad). Then given the total theoretical liability of 72,559,200 shares (61.7 million 7.5% exchange for 1,176 share per 1000 USD) which one might expect approximately 40-50% that would actually be exchanged in shares and 50-60% in cash. Meaning 72,559,200 *40% = 29,023,680 of shares issued.
So based on current terms we would have a potential "real-world" liability of 1,038,000 shares + 29,023,680 shares = approx 30 million shares total potential exchanged/"dilution" of common stock over the next 5 years or longer dependent on possibility of further note renegotiation. But that this 30 million technically being able to be reduced if we renegotiate when the PLX share price is higher, which would be likely if Pegunigalsidase gets approved and what I would expect would be good future data on Alidornase.
How would you surmise based on the above?
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