Replies to post #29347 on Ubiquitech Software Corp (UBQU)

[ChampionOfTheSun]

Good, fair, post.

I've always downplayed them (early in the year mostly) to make clear it is not as if our total valuation is proper, and the increased denominator of shares is then being appropriately layered in, decreasing the pps on a steady, accurate, valuation. Often when they are used as fear, my feeling had been that was the point being conveyed. Which I would argue against adamantly.

But certainly they are a very large portion of the trade activity. And that will obviously affect market.

[rushmann]

The good news is the long term debt should be paid off in a matter of months.

[seneca_44]

Thats a very good post Fallingknife75. As long as the heavy conversions continue and are sold into the market without any significant increase in demand for the stock, the price must go down. It is an interesting stock and should do well in the medium to the long term once the conversions are over, but until then conversions and their sale into the market will well drive the price down. The sellers are making a killing. They are making at least 600% on each $1. converted into shares and sold and they will continue doing so until it is no longer profitable.

[Punkertone40]

great post....... not so great PPS

[Fallingknife75]

As a follow on to my post #29347 from 10/27/17 linked below I though I would revisit UBQU and see how the dilution was going. I have been watching the stock and had expected mathematically that the dilution of the L/T debt would be winding down in the spring (April-Jun) time frame, making the company potentially worth investing in again; I was previously long and took a rather large loss (primarily due to dilution) but still like the underlying company so I have been watching from the sidelines. I will use the same basic format as my previous post for simplicity. If anyone finds an error in my numbers please let me know.

Long Term Debt Aug 31st = 549,136.
Long Term Debt Nov 30th = 697,581.

In my previous review the L/T debt had declined so it was easy just to subtract and then convert at .001 for the dilution total. In the 4th quarter L/T debt surprisingly increased by $148,445 so I have to use the Notes to Financials (also in Disclosure form) to see the dilution on a monthly basis which is as follows:

September = 55,000,000 shares
October = 57,839,548 shares
November = 55,000,000 shares

Total dilution for Q4 = 167,893,548 shares

Once again using FINRA's monthly share volume page: http://otce.finra.org/MonthlyShareVolume the monthly numbers are as follows.

September = 54,805,221
October = 87,425,159
November = 88,499,369

Total shares traded in Q4 = 230,729,749

% of conversion shares from total trading during Q4 = 167,893,548 / 230,729,749 = 0.7276 = 72.76%

Nearly 73% of all shares traded in Q4 could be attributed to note conversions (assuming all were sold into the market which is logical).

One unusual observation is during September more shares were converted than actually traded. It is possible they just sold them in the later months which had higher volume. It is also possible that with the steadily bloating O/S that they weren't forced to sell all the shares since the 10% holdings threshold has increased so much.

It is pretty apparent from the 10K numbers that the company will either have to raise the A/S or do a reverse split in the near future; A/S 900m, O/S 715.5m. This leaves only 184.5m shares to max out the A/S and they are carrying $697k of L/T debt (Convertible). Even if they used all their cash $267k it is just a drop in the bucket.

I no longer look at UBQU as a potential investment and will probably not post on the board again unless someone asks a valid question.

I wish everyone the best in their trading/investing,

Knife

Q3 analysis linked below,

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=135650044