OncLive put out coverage with a short writeup on friday. BioWorld online also put out an article on the recent Oncosec data on friday. Oncosec is getting alot more eyes on them with the recent data updates. The data is very encouraging especially because more partial responders are becoming complete responders. Keep in mind that the FDA granted Oncosec fast track as well as orphan drug status based on a lower response rate earlier this year. That rate just improved to a 50% BORR. If Oncosec replicates these numbers in the PISCES trial next year we are most definitely looking at an early approval and bump up in timeline to commercialization. The better the overall response rate, the more patients Oncosec will likely treat when approved.
1,000 patients treated at $50,000 would be 50 million dollars. If you multiply this conservative number a few years out and a ramp up in melanoma cancer patients which is expected to explode in the next 10 years, then you really get a much higher number a few years out for this one indication.
Merck would be absolutely foolish to not simply buyout Oncosec if they are given the opportunity. Punit may actually not want to give up the company if this turns out to be too good to give away. I think next year this will turn in to a licensing and milestone situation and an expansion into other indications such as TNBC. NSCLC will be the largest cancer market that Merck will dominate with their most recent 1st line approval which leapfrogged over Bristol Myers. I could see Merck making Oncosec and offer to run a new combo trial for NSCLC with trial funding.
Positive PISCES trial results next year will lead to rapid changes at Oncosec.
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