Replies to post #30868 on Intellipharmaceutics International Inc. (IPCI)

[bluelucky]

For what it is worth based on past numbers it seems like a close estimate is to take 80% of sales and the 5% for focalin and 30% for seroquel.

[wimuskyfisherman]

Angelo- We don't know the split in profits. But last quarters numbers strongly suggest(to me at least), that IPCI is getting much closer(even less) to 20% than 40%.

[Samsa]

One thing I like is now the numbers for September were extrapolated as I was inquiring about. The numbers reported by week add up to 2020, but now taking into account the last week of August was reported in September we now have "good" slid numbers for September.

of importance is seeing that September alone posted more sales that the entire 3QE numbers of June, July and August. when you also look at Focalin, you see those numbers going up as well so its safe to say we should at least earn the 1.2 million.

as stated, what is the actual split then for Seroquel? if not that high we may only see 2 million for Revenue in the 4QE.

[tilator]

Thank you both Angelo and Fred. Just keep this nice data coming.

Now - as we all know, mothhs, weeks and quarter of years do not come exactly together. It makes it a bit more difficult to analyze data if we try to find every month sales.

To make it more precise I would like to suggest analyzing it in four week periods. It would always be exactly 28 days.

With this approach we can cut out one source of fluctuation. Right?


What we need to know it trend. Not exact quarterly numbers.

[swe77]

We don't have enough data points to figure it out. We should be able to reverse engineer in Q4. The Focalin exclusivity window made it difficult to reverse engineer the Q3 numbers.

It would be great if you could add two more columns: 20 & 30% revenue to the Seroquel monthly sales and 2.5 & 5% revenue to the monthly Focalin sales.

If you projected growth is correct (which I think it's) we are looking at below numbers in Q4.

Seroquel

1,372,500 (6,862,500 x 20%)

2,058,750 (6,862,500 x 30%)

Focalin

19,820,000

495,500 (19,820,000 x 2.5%)

991,000 (19,820,000 x 5%)

The worst case Q4 revenue would be 1,943,000 (1,372,500 + 495,500 + 75,000)

The best case Q4 revenue is 3,124,750 (2,058,750 + 991,000 + 75,000)

There could be the very best case if one more ANDA got approved by the end of November, but I'd not bet on it.

We'll have to wait until February 2018 to confirm the above assumptions.