Replies to post #6893 on ANI Pharmaceuticals (ANIP)

[Just the facts maam]

Bagel, we may find out more around the Q3 earnings release estimated to be November 2, 2017. Whether they will be in a position to release info at the time remains to be seen, however the report did say that the formal sale process may begin in the next few weeks. Would that include the announcement of Ani entering into an agreement with Company X?

ANI Pharmaceuticals is looking into a sale after drawing takeover interest, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. The company is working with a financial adviser to weigh options for the business, which has attracted interest from private equity firms and other pharmaceutical companies, the report says. Sale considerations are at a preliminary stage and a formal sale process may begin in the next few weeks, the report notes.

The Fly

In my opinion, the offer will depend on whether Ani is accelerating the next step to get ready for a future co-promotion deal with AbbVie or if Abbvie is triggering the deal.

If we are looking at the next step you will see a company with a global sales force. Just like the BPAX - ANI deal, announcement regarding Libigel will not be made and we can expect to get shares in the acquiring company. Unlike the BPAX-ANI deal, where most shares were held by retail investors, ANI's shares are heavily owned by institutional investors more likely to vote with the BOD's recommendation. Sadly, had we known the full picture with the BAX-ANIP merger we may have taken the first offer. In the end BPAX shareholder's walked away with 43% of the merged company as opposed to 47%.

If on the other hand AbbVie is going for the whole enchilada and looking at a full buyout. It could be sizable. I believe Abbott labs influenced the clinical trial changes in November 2009 which led to the discoveries. If so they would be entitle to discount over another bidder coming off the street. Given that Abbvie paid $21 billion for Imbruvica a drug estimated to generate peak sales of $7 billion if all indications are approved. However Imbruvica was already on the market and on the way to reaching Blockbuster status. If the employee I spoke with was right all the indications for Libigel if approved is estimated to generate peak sales in excess $16 billion. Now this would have to be discounted for Abbvie's early collaboration and taking over the second part of the safety/efficacy study, in addition to the fact it is not approved yet. They are gaining ANI's manufacturing facilities,and pipeline.

Think about it, if as I suspect Abbvie was willing to pay $350 million for a Priority Review Voucher which in my opinion will be used for Libigel, a $12 billion, maybe more much for a buyout from AbbVie is not unreasonable.

I believe the reason for all the non-disclosure was BPAX wanted more than Abbott/AbbVie were willing to offer at the time. However AbbVie did not want the discoveries becoming public knowledge. Which could have made a buyout much more expensive when and if they decided to pull the trigger.

JMHO

[Just the facts maam]

Bagel, we may find out more around the Q3 earnings release estimated to be November 2, 2017. Whether they will be in a position to release info at the time remains to be seen, however the report did say that the formal sale process may begin in the next few weeks. Would that include the announcement of Ani entering into an agreement with Company X?

ANI Pharmaceuticals is looking into a sale after drawing takeover interest, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. The company is working with a financial adviser to weigh options for the business, which has attracted interest from private equity firms and other pharmaceutical companies, the report says. Sale considerations are at a preliminary stage and a formal sale process may begin in the next few weeks, the report notes.

The Fly

In my opinion, the offer will depend on whether Ani is accelerating the next step to get ready for a future co-promotion deal with AbbVie or if Abbvie is triggering the deal.

If we are looking at the next step you will see a company with a global sales force. Just like the BPAX - ANI deal, announcement regarding Libigel will not be made and we can expect to get shares in the acquiring company. Unlike the BPAX-ANI deal, where most shares were held by retail investors, ANI's shares are heavily owned by institutional investors more likely to vote with the BOD's recommendation. Sadly, had we known the full picture with the BAX-ANIP merger we may have taken the first offer. In the end BPAX shareholder's walked away with 43% of the merged company as opposed to 47%.

If on the other hand AbbVie is going for the whole enchilada and looking at a full buyout. It could be sizable. I believe Abbott labs influenced the clinical trial changes in November 2009 which led to the discoveries. If so they would be entitle to discount over another bidder coming off the street. Given that Abbvie paid $21 billion for Imbruvica a drug estimated to generate peak sales of $7 billion if all indications are approved. However Imbruvica was already on the market and on the way to reaching Blockbuster status. If the employee I spoke with was right all the indications for Libigel if approved is estimated to generate peak sales in excess $16 billion. Now this would have to be discounted for Abbvie's early collaboration and taking over the second part of the safety/efficacy study, in addition to the fact it is not approved yet. They are gaining ANI's manufacturing facilities,and pipeline.

Think about it, if as I suspect Abbvie was willing to pay $350 million for a Priority Review Voucher which in my opinion will be used for Libigel, a $12 billion, maybe more much for a buyout from AbbVie is not unreasonable.

I believe the reason for all the non-disclosure was BPAX wanted more than Abbott/AbbVie were willing to offer at the time. However AbbVie did not want the discoveries becoming public knowledge. Which could have made a buyout much more expensive when and if they decided to pull the trigger.