Replies to post #214327 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

AGN/RVNC—I presume you're referring to Botox, specifically. To keep this simple, let's restrict the discussion to the next five years.

The worst-case scenario for AGN during this time period, IMO, is a 40% reduction in worldwide Botox operating profit. This estimate takes into account the loss of market share as well as some price erosion (relative to what Botox pricing would have been in the absence of competition from RVNC).

Note that RVNC's RT002 will probably launch in the US in late 2019 or early 2020. Launches in other countries will occur later.