Replies to post #1056 on Helios and Matheson Analytics Inc (HMNY)

[Tekterra]

Yeah, not sure if any of you guys were gamers, but back in 1992 or around that time, Blizzard Entertainment released it's first massive multiplayer online game World of Warcraft. It caught attention faster than their tech people could support the game and the game performance was bad for a long time until they finally got the infrastructures to support up to some 12 million subscribers at peak some years later.

I mean, 10$ a month who wouldn't want a pass? We spend 40 bucks on a cell phone plan or more for family plans, some more on internet service at home, netflix, Amazon all sorts of subscribed services. For 20$ wife and I can go to the movie theater pretty much whenever. You can't beat that. We like to go out for dinner and a movie once in a while and we go more often if there is cool films to watch. It's not the same ordering food and sit on the couch. Often time we had to wait for new films to be available online.

[houtheman]

Hi Bob,

Great work with using web traffic to estimate subscriber count.

I believe there is one possible conservative assumption in your calculation however. Over time I believe the conversion rate will go UP not stay steady - especially as compared with the first few weeks where you have a lot of casual traffic from news junkies and also it takes several hits to make a conversion. So the people hitting the website in October could be the same people hitting in August but now because of repeat media exposure or recommendations from friends, they are more likely to buy. Bottom line, we have upside potential here with a rising conversion rate over time.

I have another method to estimate sub count and interestingly it also comes exactly to 600k. What I did was plotted every data point officially released in an SEC filing and then drew a projected line along the same slope towards 2.5M after one year. What do you know it lines up at exactly 600k by October 15th. Infact I believe the company must have done this same exact thing to come up with their projection. They used the slope of growth from 150k to 400k and assumed it will stay steady throughout the year.

Please join me and a few close colleagues in my private whatsapp group on moviepass so we collaborate further.

https://chat.whatsapp.com/91UiSapZc1qHVNP4K39f5P

My handle on ST is StoryTrading

Ben