Replies to post #199440 on Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[MackG]

DaubersUP, based on your comment on the current clinical status of drugs in the IPIX pipeline, and in reference to the recent post re. the risk/reward ratio, I believe that a very reasonable approach to risk/reward is to give EACH OF THE THREE drugs a 10% chance of being a blockbuster success. This is still an ultra-conservative guesstimate that makes the investment three times more attractive IMO. I view the current share price as nothing short of a once in a lifetime wealth creation opportunity.

[BonelessCat]

According to a study published in Nature, the success rate overall is less than 10%. But the success rate for each following stage significantly increases from 1 to 2, 2 to 3, and 3 to approval.

“They found that the probability of success was 63% in Phase I trials, 31% in Phase II trials, 58% in Phase III trials and 85% during the regulatory review process, for an overall success rate of 9.6% (63% × 31% × 58% × 85% = 9.6%).” —Jun 30, 2016, Parsing clinical success rates: Nature Reviews Drug Discovery

So there is a 17% chance of success from the current phase 2 for each of OM, UP and P. Then each of these that successfully passes phase 2, plus ABSSSI, all individually have a 58% chance for approval.

[Bruinfan4ever]

If you remove the % of cancer drugs, the other types of drugs are much much higher. Cancer drugs are the hardest to get through the system.