La Niña May Develop By Fall or Winter, NOAA Says; Here's What That Could Mean La Niña conditions are becoming more possible by fall or winter 2017-2018. These conditions may play a role in conditions this winter in the U.S.
La Niña is now increasingly possible in the next few months, according to a new report released by NOAA, and may have some impacts on weather in the United States in the fall and winter.
A majority of the models in the IRI/CPC suite of Niño-3.4 predictions favor ENSO-neutral through the Northern Hemisphere 2017-18 winter [Fig. 6]. However, the most recent predictions from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) indicate the formation of La Niña as soon as the Northern Hemisphere fall 2017 [Fig. 7]. Forecasters favor these predictions in part because of the recent cooling of surface and sub-surface temperature anomalies, and also because of the higher degree of forecast skill at this time of year. In summary, there is an increasing chance (~55-60%) of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18
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