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Replies to post #128814 on Triple 000 and Sub-penny Chart Plays
trader53
10/08/17 3:09 AM
#128991 RE: trader53 #128814
LONG TERM: Uptrend A New Bull Market - Primary III Underway We are currently expecting SPX 3,000+ in the next 2 to 4 years ____________________________________________________________ MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend SHORT TERM: NFP 33k job loss surprise, DOW -2 Gold rose $6, and the USD was lower. The market opened lower by more than 5-points for the first time in three weeks today. Quite a record. Traders took the opportunity to take some profits after NFP surprisingly came in negative for the first time in 7 years. While many were blaming the negative report on the hurricanes, we took a look at the historical data. Typically negative NFP reports occur entering /during / just after recessions. There are occasions, however, when an isolated one month decline occurs during expansions: 1995, 1996 and 1997. For now, we’ll go along with the hurricane consensus while awaiting next months report. The pullback from yesterday’s extremely overbought SPX 2553 all-time high is only 9-points so far. Not enough to have an impact on the short term count. Yesterday’s comments still apply. ____________________________________________________________ Best to your trading! Trade what’s in front of you!
LONG TERM: uptrend This week let’s look at the big picture. The very big picture. While published data on the US stock market only began in the year 1885, we have been able to piece together, using secular Saeculum cycles and economic cycles, how the US market would have looked from the early 1700’s. As an emerging growth economy the US would have not looked anything like the European markets that do have stock market data going back that far. That data was not considered. From around the year 1700 to 1929 the US experienced a 200+ year grand super cycle bull market GSC 1 The 1929-1932 crash, when the stock market lost nearly 90% of its value, ended GSC 2 While short in time the crash made up for it in price damage. A GSC 3 bull market began at that 1932 low. Within GSC 1 there were five super cycles, approximately: SC1 1700-1770 SC2 1770-1776 SC3 1776-1850 SC4 1850-1857 SC5 1857-1929 Within the current GSC 3 there have been two completed super cycles, with the third underway: SC1 1932-2007 SC2 2007-2009 SC3 2009-xxxx Since super cycle bull markets last 70+ years, this SC3 is not likely to top until around the year 2080. Within each super cycle bull market there are five Cycle waves. SC1 of GSC 3 divided as follows: C1 1932-1937 C2 1937-1942 C3 1942-1973 C4 1973-1974 C5 1974-2007 Notice the Cycle wave bull markets can be as short as 5 years or as long as 30+ years. Also note, no matter the wave degree the bear markets are always much shorter in time than the bull markets.