imo the time horizon,whether ST or LT, is a very significant factor to the height of the roof. i rarely if ever do options so my estimate of roof height is not appropriate for option players.
be as it may, imo tril is at least a ten bagger from these levels. i remember much higher estimates from Peter and those were from when the pps was in the teens.
the factors most important imo are related to a combo with PD-1s: first is efficacy which in the combo has to more than the low 10s to 20s of responders for PD-1 in general (at least a double of that level hopefully), manageable tox level and durability of response. but there are interrelating issues. if efficacy and response is high and durability is say twice longer than pd-1 alone, tox issues become less front and center as in all cancer treatments.
if all go well, hell forget the roof ,think sky lol. that is why i am sitting on a 40% loss in tril, at times not long ago , higher than that even. peter said it is a genuine lotto ticket and i agree and i like to bet on lotto tickets lol.
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