Replies to post #213795 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

VSAR -

If you agree with his market analysis, we are talking a 10x return if the drug was successful. And I think all will concede this drug had a much better than 10% shot at success in this non-inferiority trial (which generally are easier than a superiority trial). So that made an investment a reasonable idea on a risk/reward basis.

It was still a major P3 binary event and we all know what a crapshoot those can turn out to be more often than not. I do agree on the non-inferiority point but the fact that VSAR was effectively an all-or-nothing bet on a one-trick pony was why I never came close to taking a position. If I'm going to gamble on a P3 binary (and I rarely do that), there has to be at least one major clinical asset left in the pipeline to fall back on in a worst-case scenario.