Replies to post #119429 on Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[RealDutch]

But I believe that a traditional $100m loan will bring a tsunami on OTC.

I don't think so. I said a year ago that a loan will have no effect on the share price. Then came the $35M loan and it had no effect. Then came the $15M loan and it had no effect. And then we learned... that they don't have access to the $35M after all.

Management is doing an exceptionally good job destroying their own credibility. So what happens when they get the loan? People will remain skeptical. First, it could take months before TRW has access to the money. Then another few months until SIAF has access to the money. And then the only thing that matters is a dividend policy. They could still screw it up by announcing a share buyback program.

I know it's not what anyone wants to hear. But it's reality.

We are better off hoping for the F-1 filing in a few months. That one could make a difference. A convertible bond from ECAB. An equity sale from TRW. Or some agreement for CA abroad. Or, if they really wise up, cash dividends before then. But I'm not hopeful on that one.