Replies to post #1221 on Vascular Biogenics Ltd (VBLT)

[staccani]

Well if BEV behaves as historical those are the VBL111 efficacy numbers more or less. The longer it takes for the 189th event to happen, the higher VBL111 survival. What is intriguing here is that the VBL111 Long Term survival ( beyond 15 months) seems quite improved vs ph2.

[staccani]

Assuming BEV behaves as in historical data, VBL111 would achieve a significant survival improvement vs BEV (ca 30-32% vs 20-18%) at the 189th even if it happens in September or in October, but would underperform ph2.

On the contrar,y if the 189th event happens in November or December, VB111 would not only show a significant survival improvement vs BEV (basically doubling survival rates at 16-17 months , ie 33%-34% vs 16%-17%), but also greatly improving ph2 results (since quite a few deaths happened during those months).

[staccani]

Assuming BEV behaves as in historical data, VB111 would achieve a significant survival improvement vs BEV (ca 30-32% vs 20-18%) at the 189th event, even if it happens at the end September or the end of October, ie at 14th or 15th month as weighted avg. But it would underperform ph2.

On the contrary, if the 189th event happens at the end of November or the end of December, VB111 would not only show a significant survival improvement vs BEV (basically doubling survival rates at the 16-17th months , ie 33%-34% vs 16%-17%), but also greatly improving ph2 results (since quite a few deaths happened during those mont