Replies to post #29653 on Intellipharmaceutics International Inc. (IPCI)

[wimuskyfisherman]

Fred- Keep sharing. I agree the market penetration by MNK continues to look strong. But they still have a ways to go... The issue I am trying to prepare everyone for is Q3 numbers are not going to be that good. I was forecasting IPCI get $3M in revenue from Seroquel XR in Q3. With the info you have provided, I think we will be substantially lower than that. My gut estimate right now is $0.5M-1M but I do see an outside chance we could see $1-2M. But certainly not $3M in Seroquel XR revenue alone.

[AngeloFoca]

I tried to do some modeling using the numbers provided... but got to a point where I decided I was over my head.

https://www.goodrx.com/seroquel-xr?kw=price&utm_source=bing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_term=seroquel%20xr|p&utm_campaign=seroquel%20xr&utm_content=Ad-Group_General&form=tablet&dosage=300mg&quantity=30&days_supply=&label_override=Seroquel%20XR

If you toggle the "Brand" box (top left corner) you see that Seroquel XR - 30 day supply - 300 mg is ~ $600 - yet Quetiapine ER ??? the generic of that is $36 to $283 depending on where you buy it???

I decided I don't understand it enough to come up with meaningful figures.

[AngeloFoca]

Date 08/25/2017 08/18/2017 08/11/2017 08/04/2017 07/28/2017 07/21/201

Total 443.00 384.00 332.00 221.00 175.00 183.0

That is what is of interest to us... note I bolded end of July TRXs and end of August TRXs and we see it gained 268 RXs during the month.

We can multiply that 268 monthly gain by 12 months and we would have a total of 3,216 RXs by end of August 2018... that is the linear equation.

We can equally say that 443 end of August RXs is 253% of the 175 end of July RXs, and if we use the parabolic equation... this is what we would get.

August 2017 = 440 x 250% = 1,100 September RXs
September 2017 = 1,100 x 250% = 2,750
October 2017 = 2,750 x 250% = 6,875
November 2017 = 6,875 x 250% = 17,187
December 2017 = 17,187 x 250% = 42,868
January 2018 = 42,968 x 250% = 107,421 February RXs

I won't take it any further... and you can scuff at either set of numbers depending on your posturing... but BOTH are absolute possibilities based on the info we have so far.

The next set of numbers will allow us to get more "in the zone"... which will most likely be somewhere in between.