I don't think your math is wrong - you could be right on with your combo market estimate. It is hard to know but your estimate seems to be the worse case scenario and it's not a bad market given CYDY is a $100 mil valuation right now.
As for your assumptions that the FDA meeting is bad - there is nothing supporting that, it has a better chance of being great. You have been deaf to other posters here explaining that the FDA meeting is a step in the process and has nothing out of the ordinary to it. Do you really think that once a company gets to PE in a P3 trial and they don't meet with the FDA? That sounds crazy, meeting with them to discuss the data is to be expected.
As For the financing, insiders may not have or want to get heavier in investing in CYDY and the fact they get convertable notes is not out of the ordinary. The deal with paulson has been done before and has been the method to raise money to keep trials going. mgmt does not control why traders buy/sell the stock on the OTC so having to raise at these levels is just the way it is. It would be nice to raise at higher SP but they must keep going. Traditional financing is not typically into speculation in small biotechs so it is likely that is not an option. The good thing is that once they raise the funds, there isn't a future major dilution holding back the SP when PR does come out.
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