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BlackDoggie

08/24/17 1:05 PM

#16891 RE: woodenbear #16890

Good question.

The P2 GvHD trial is a 60-patient, double blind study with nearly all endpoints at 100 days post-treatment. There are two minor "other outcomes" that are measured at 365 days post-treatment, but all key data will be available to be unblinded at 100 days. Clinicaltrials.gov lists December 2017 as the estimated primary completion date. If you assume that means December 31, and you assume enrollment is on pace to meet that goal (a large assumption, no doubt), then we could reasonably expect a PR regarding completion of enrollment in roughly one month - sometime in mid or late September. Data would obviously not be available until sometime in early 2018.

Wouldn't that be a nice thing to layer on to combo PE's? And remember - many biotech buyouts occur after P2, meaning that potential buyers may see real value in positive P2 results. Not to say that this will be the case here, but it would be naive not to consider the possibility when viewing valuations if a deal were to happen six months from now.

woodenbear

08/24/17 1:08 PM

#16892 RE: woodenbear #16890

Looks like we could also have a PR on full enrollment for GvHD soon with PE data available in 1Q18. But trial is double blind like combo.

That could be big boost to valuation if we get Positive PE back before BO! I for one hope we do not sell in 2017. If PE for combo is good then why not wait another quarter or two to sell. Trends are looking to good. I'll take the dilution if need be and then leverage up and double down after. If PE for combo is good this stock is derisked in my mind.