Replies to post #645 on Excelsior Mining Corp (EXMGF)

[masslanding]

Hi Jc
I think you will get a idea of what to expect by photos projections that was posted on the 8th.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=133681823

[Photonics_Guy]

Jcontrer

You asked,

If we assume that Excelsior receives its permits and were in discussions for a buyout, what would you calculate they would be asking for (US$ per share)?

In an earlier post, (#586), I wrote the following:

There can be a big disconnect between the pro-forma valuation, i.e., the NPV shown by the company in a Feasibility Study, and the value that the market places on a project. This disconnect is clearly evident in Excelsior's current valuation, which is far below the NPV published in the FS. The market is currently valuing the Gunnison Copper Project at approximately 18% of the NPV in the FS. The disconnect between market valuation and the valuation in the FS is primarily due to two factors: (1) perceived risk and (2) where the company is at in terms of bringing the project online, which is still related to risk.

I am of the opinion that we probably won't see valuations approaching 100% of NPV until Excelsior proves that it is getting the recovery rates it advertised in the FS as the market considers that a significant perceived risk with ISR technology. Unwarranted, IMO, but probably true.

Consequently, I believe that to consider any type of acquisition prior to 6 months to 1 year of operation will be shooting ourselves in the foot from a valuation standpoint. Stephen, Roland and the very professional mining folks at Greenstone most likely will not consider low-ball valuations, when they know that after a few short months of operation, we will very likely be able to command valuations approaching 100% of NPV...keeping in mind that the NPV is not necessarily locked to the value disclosed in the FS. If copper blows through $3.00 or $3.50/lb, the company valuation should increase proportionately.

I see minimal risk in the construction of the mine. That is the beauty of ISR. All Excelsior needs to do is drill a bunch of holes, encase the wells, connect flow controls to the top of the wells, run pipe on the surface to provide the closed-loop injection/extraction of leach solution, and we're good to go. It's MUCH simpler than a blasting/hauling/crushing/leaching operation of a typical open-pit mine. I suspect that Stephen and Roland have a similar outlook on it.

Stephen told me over dinner one night when he was out visiting potential institutional investors here in Dallas, that they used very conservative models in computing the recovery rates in the FS. I am hopeful and expectant that when we start the operation of the mine, that the actual recovery rates are significantly higher than what was stated in the FS.

PG

[rubberworm]

It was nice to see Greenstone trying to promote some. They look to be top Dawg here. Lord Renwick should be working this on the down low. I don't see that type of buying coming in yet. I'm just a pawn in this game. Hope the big Dawg is hungry. More for us pups.