Replies to post #27448 on Niocorp Developments Ltd (NB)

[tedro84]

I made no such statement. You are interpreting my comments at your own will. I'm not gambling on a buyout, quite the opposite really. I think a buyout is in the best interest of shareholders. I've held this belief from day one and the full BFS reconfirms this. This does not exclude the option of building and operating the mine as a viable alternative.

I think there is far greater gamble banking on a scandium offtake, a junior mining company obtaining a billion dollars in financing, and ultimately a junior mining company constructing and operating a mine of this magnitude than a buyout, MS's credentials withstanding.

The BFS made it clear that without scandium sales, this is not worthy of investment. How many institutional investors will finance on the belief that the market is going to grow 5x in the next four years over 30x in the next 10? I'm not saying those predictions may not be accurate, but nobody is lending this kind of money without some sort of contract supporting the demand and price, and I'm not even sure an offtake agreement is enough support.

Take a look at page 410 of the BFS (434 in the pdf). The niobium offtakes don't even have pricing guarantees. They are ultimately based on benchmarks. I don't think a similar scandium offtake without some sort of price floor flies with an institution. Nb has significant history of price stability. Sc does not.

While we wait for offtakes, permitting, and investment, this company continues to incur expenses. Take a look at section 26 for some more significant expenses that will likely be incurred prior to financing. Where do you think the money comes from between now and the time of a significant investment? Equity sales.

A buyout alleviates the shareholder of all this risk between the now and the time of initial production. A well capitalized company does not need an immediate offtake to proceed with construction. They have four years to negotiate a better deal as the market develops.

Finally, take a look at some of the work that Northcott and RPM have done. I'd link you to some projects but the Northcott site is down. I'd like to see a single example of a junior mine obtaining a billion dollars for construction. Every other large project has been with a large existing company. BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Vale, etc.

I'm not saying it can't happen, but to suggest one is gambling by suggesting a buyout is in the best interest of this company is absurd.