tmorr55, that hedge fund manager
may be very short... look at this compared to his theory..
Market could be underestimating the risks of what low storage could do to NG price. Take the 2016-2017 winter for example..
Last winter the total storage draws were close to 2 Tcf, and that was with very bearish weather, DGAZ folks screaming for NG to tank. This year we are probably going to go into winter with something around 3.8 Tcf. If the season give ues just get a normal winter, potential draws could be around 2.5 Tcf. November will have to be priced higher if early winter forecasts show that it's much cooler, and each month continues to show increased price per contract.
Traders increased gross long exposure from 40% to 65% with most of the increase going into buying Nov 2017 contracts.
So time will tell....
but yes that hedge fund manager is calling for like $2 NG by end of year and worst case $1.50 on increasing supply worries
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