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KobeF

08/09/17 8:47 AM

#16452 RE: fred198484 #16451

All great points! Very well said. Rational perspectives.

Longs are all gambling on the binary event and need to be aware of losing all your money, which IMO, has a higher chance than 50%.
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Amatuer17

08/09/17 8:52 AM

#16453 RE: fred198484 #16451

Great write up.

Exactly my take but you explained much better.

Reading the clues from the carefully selected words in these PR updates is very important - they do not want to give even hint of wrong info.
So anything missing from such PR can be assumed to deliberately missing to draw our own conclusions.
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trding

08/09/17 9:00 AM

#16454 RE: fred198484 #16451

Press release statements should be read very carefully and it is always difficult to overcome your own biases when interpreting the words


Exactly Fred, that also goes for people with a clear bear mentality


In the Ibalizumab trial, they went to 40 patients even though only 30 were required because some of the patients were so sick upon entering the trial that they died (4 of them).



Four people died during a 40 patient trial of Ibalizumab, and they still approved it! wow, I don't believe we will have any issues here then.

In this case, the release indicates the combo trial has not yet closed pending a discussion with the FDA, even though they have already met the required 30 patients.



Yes, but you gave two possible deaths or statistical oddity, both of which are negatively biased, both of which I high doubt is the cause.


On the brief mention of the mono trial, it is noteworthy that they did not mention anything about meeting the 300 total by the end of the year. I would say that signals they don't think they are going to make that



Maybe, but that also is a negativity biased opinion at this point. Clearly mono enrollment is not going to be hard.


So, the bottom line from my perspective is the timelines have been pushed out across the board (which is what always seems to happen with drug trials) and there is a new element of doubt about why the company wants to talk with the FDA before closing the combo trial.



This is also negatively biased opinion.
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JPG77

08/10/17 7:28 AM

#16497 RE: fred198484 #16451

Fred, in your opening sentence, you said "Press release statements should be read very carefully and it is always difficult to overcome your own biases when interpreting the words." And then in your closing comment, you said "the bottom line from my perspective is the timelines have been pushed out across the board".

Yes, I agree with you about PRs. It is always difficult to overcome your own biases when interpreting the words.