Replies to post #473 on Viking Therapeutics Inc (VKTX)

[ZeWaffleBaron]

Currently No known side effects to either drug, to my knowledge. Sure that will change, every drug has side effects. They are very close in structure supposedly to naturally occurring compounds in the body, hence the lack of extra side effects. That being said, every action in the body has some sort of reaction, so there should be a few 'natural' consequences i.e. Side effects of these drugs, though those remain to be seen.

Price stuff is simple to understand. We are unknown, low volume trading. If someone wants to load up before the trial build up phase, where all the money is made on Wall Street, they would use the lack of volume to their advantage. It's easy for even medium size players to manipulate a stock price, if most people don't know about it, and most people holding the stock aren't regularly buying and selling it. You sell some shares you don't have, tank the price, and hope to buy more than you sold to get it there, to justify the means. Or you use these high frequency trading programs to churn the share price slowly lower, and do it as cheaply as possible. I don't think anyone sold short in any large volume, probably the second option. Again, I truly doubt that anyone who has held this stock to this point would be selling any number of shares, no matter how low the price goes. Hence the fact that they couldn't sell it much lower without risking major losses. I also can't imagine that any institution would sell right before trial results, having held it this far. If they wanted to sell, they would've sold in late feb/early march, before data was initially expected. Everyone has their position by this time. What you are seeing is others trying to enter a position in this stock, as cheaply as possible, so they can sell shortly before data is released, or if they feel confident enough, to sell right after data is released. It's the age old game on Wall Street. I would be much more concerned if the price wouldn't have tanked. It would imply that nobody likes this stock, or feels comfortable playing the game with it and accumulating the shares. So, thus far, the reassuring pattern I look for, is maintained.

[ZeWaffleBaron]

So I didn't want to put this in my other post, because sometimes they delete posts that they consider off topic. But I consider this on topic. If this recent price action worries you, I would encourage you to look at a stock that I consider similar, that recently went through the process. Pick any you choose. One that I followed closely that followed this pattern, was titan. You should look at the historical chart for how titan behaved, in the year leading up to phase 3 data, and the FDA approval decisions and delays. It will give you a great indication for why we are trading the way we are, and what to expect moving forward. Ignore what has happened since that other company's approval, it doesn't bear relevance to our situation. Glta and have a nice week. We are 70-85 days from data. It shall get bumpy. Patience is key. Find a good hobby to keep your mind busy as this passes, you will find yourself second guessing your decisions every time somebody drops the price on this one, especially as it gets closer to the real news... the data. Our float is so low, that nobody will be able to keep this baby down, if data is good. I feel almost certain on that. If data is good, they may decide to raise more money via ligand, and go it alone. That is best case scenario, imho. One can only hope. Seems like a lot of risk though, but ligand has deep pockets. And yes, they have a patent. And plenty of years left of patent protection, thankfully. If you google the compound name and 'patent' you can find the exact info quite easily.

Happy Tuesday