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Replies to post #123243 on Triple 000 and Sub-penny Chart Plays
August and September
have had dismal records for stock returns
over the past 20 years
and with strategists warning
that the market is overdue for a major correction
the next two months could be rough.
But there are reasons to believe
that any impending selloff
may not be as cataclysmic as some fear.
LONG TERM: Uptrend
A New Bull Market - Primary III Underway
We are currently expecting SPX 3,000+
in the next 2 to 4 years
____________________________________________________________
MEDIUM TERM Uptrend
SHORT TERM: slightly higher open then record close, DOW +26
____________________________________________________________
Gold dipped $1, and the USD was lower.
Gold is now in an uptrend
The market started the week slightly higher today,
then basically went into drift mode
for the rest of the day until the close.
For the past 14 consecutive trading days
the market has remained
in a very narrow 1% range: 2460-2484.
Market is trading like it did
before index futures
were introduced in the 1980’s.
This is clearly illustrated
by the recent lowest VIX level
since its original inception in 1986.
The two previous all-time lows,
original formula: 1995 and 2005,
and new methodology: 1993 and 2006.
Bull market tops have occurred,
at the earliest, one year later.
Short term count remains unchanged:
2432-2413-2484,
with a possible 4th wave triangle:
2460-2480-2465-2481.
Short term support
rises to the 2479 and 2456 pivots,
with resistance at 2525 pivot.
Short term momentum
ended the day slightly overbought.
Best to your trading!
Trade what’s in front of you!
LONG TERM: uptrend
This week let’s look at the big picture.
The very big picture.
While published data on the US stock market
only began in the year 1885,
we have been able to piece together,
using secular Saeculum cycles and economic cycles,
how the US market would have looked
from the early 1700’s.
As an emerging growth economy
the US would have not looked anything like
the European markets
that do have stock market data going back that far.
That data was not considered.
From around the year 1700 to 1929
the US experienced a 200+ year
grand super cycle bull market GSC 1
The 1929-1932 crash,
when the stock market lost nearly 90% of its value,
ended GSC 2
While short in time
the crash made up for it in price damage.
A GSC 3 bull market began at that 1932 low.
Within GSC 1 there were five super cycles, approximately:
SC1 1700-1770
SC2 1770-1776
SC3 1776-1850
SC4 1850-1857
SC5 1857-1929
Within the current GSC 3
there have been two completed super cycles,
with the third underway:
SC1 1932-2007
SC2 2007-2009
SC3 2009-xxxx
Since super cycle bull markets last 70+ years,
this SC3 is not likely to top until around the year 2080.
Within each super cycle bull market
there are five Cycle waves.
SC1 of GSC 3 divided as follows:
C1 1932-1937
C2 1937-1942
C3 1942-1973
C4 1973-1974
C5 1974-2007
Notice the Cycle wave bull markets
can be as short as 5 years or as long as 30+ years.
Also note, no matter the wave degree
the bear markets are always much shorter in time
than the bull markets.
