Replies to post #16350 on Cytodyn Inc (CYDY)

[BlackDoggie]

Hey woodenbear, good question. All I can do is give my opinion on it, and the way I've thought about it for the last six months.

I think that the company will be able to ask/receive a significant portion of the value for mono within six months. They need 24 weeks of data from 100 mono patients to provide the safety data for combo, per FDA requirements related to reducing the number of patients for combo. Since the mono P3 is an open label trial, there is no issue with blinding the data, so real time results will be available to both the company and any prospective buyers who sign an appropriate NDA. If the FDA is receiving combo well, and the interim mono data at the time is strong (I think we have every reason to believe that both efficacy and safety will be solid), then mono will start to look derisked. Not completely, of course, as the FDA can do many illogical things. But if there are multiple potential suitors looking at it (as I assume there will be), then it begins a game of chicken over who is willing to pay the asking price earlier than the others. My guess is that management is assigning GvHD some value as well, and the "offer" will be "if you want to buy it for HIV, you're going to pay for it for GvHD as well." I think that the 24 weeks of mono data on 100 patients time frame is the inflection point where the risk becomes worth the reward for a buyout partner.

Completely my opinion, of course, but that's how I've always seen it. Interested in what anyone else thinks.

[Saltz]

They are hoping to expand the Combo label in September with the FDA by presenting the safety data with the Mono Trial. We should be at least 50% enrolled by September meaning 150 patients. They understand patient population has everything to do with valuation in reference to a buy out.

[Saltz]

Why would CYDY sell before the pipeline is more mature?

They won't unless the price is right. I think $6-$7 is the bottom consideration right now.

[TheBioTechG]

I think ideally the company would like to bring mono across the finish line because that is the real money maker. However, you're talking about a pre-revenue biotech that will have to continue to dilute to raise funds to see this thing through. Additionally, the company does not have the staff or resources to bring the drug to market themselves. I think the strategy is complete as much of the trials as possible and hope for a bidding war amongst the big pharma Giants.

[misiu143]

Looks like Pro 140 might be working very well in at least few very difficult diseases , so yes " pipeline " is impressive as we can see so far .
And with one medicine , it mean no extra expenses with evaluation at least safety profile, BIG PLUS !!!!!

Each might be sell separately if needed.