Replies to post #1056 on VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN (XIV)

[Sendme]

Quite honestly I was getting frustrated with the fibs, although I strongly believed in them. Then a couple of weeks ago Qone0 shared some info on using the Gartley variations with the fibs. So now I am back testing some of the patterns.
Lately I have just been buying TVIX when the XIV got up to the top trend line. Here is a link to the info I am reading about the variations on the gartleys and the ab/cd patterns. It looks like depending on which fib extension/retracement gets hit sets up a certain form of the gartley.
http://www.forexabode.com/forex-school/technical-indicators/harmonic-price-patterns/three-drive-pattern/
The bottom of the page has links to other patterns.
Also the Cypher pattern is another one that seems to be common, but is not on that link, here is a link to that as well.

Currently I am watching to see if a noticeable pattern forms again at that top trend line.

The 60 minute chart shows it hitting the common 1.27 extension, however the 1.68 is always a possibility. But I think that if it hits that 92ish level it will pull back if it doesn't bounce here off the 1.27-1.414 zone.

It looks like it also did a cypher pattern recently as well

This is what the charts look like when I back tested the patterns this week. I do say that I like the results if one can be patient and wait for a pattern to complete and signal a buy. Best of luck. Normally TVIX has got the best of me, but the last 2 trades I had made some $$.

TVIX could be setting up a Butterfly gartley down to the fib 1.618( but it also allows for a fib 261.8 retracement). As always with the TVIX gonna tread lightly around the 18.00 area and see how it reacts. I am hoping for a little bounce, but the fib 261 will take TVIX down to 15.

[Toofuzzy]

Wz9ytp

Don't try and get fancy. Just trade price.

On a simplistic level, invest $10,0000 and look at it once per month.

If it goes to $11,000 then sell $1000? If it keeps going up keep selling $1,000 at a time.

If it drops to $9,000 then buy $1,000 which will be more shares than you sold. If it keeps dropping then keep buying enough to bring it back to $10,000.

When VIX spikes over 40 then MAYBE invest 10% of your account and be willing to invest more.

Toofuzzy

[Sendme]

FWIW I was just doing a little more back testing on the gartley patterns on page 2 of this link
http://www.forexabode.com/forex-school/technical-indicators/harmonic-price-patterns/the-gartley-pattern/
And the Bat pattern shows a retracement of the ab leg at 38.2-.50 and that is what set up the pattern. Notice back in April point b hit .46

And back in Feb there was another Gartly that formed. Both of these patterns are Bearish patterns and would have been nice buying opportunities for the XIV. Also noticed that the cd leg tends to push to the higher retrace/extension target as well when you look at the numbers given on page 2 of that gartley link above.


What I find interesting now is the fact that the TVIX is actually close to forming a Bullish Butterfly pattern,

Back in June a Butterfly pattern formed and did an initial bounce at the fib 1.27-1.414 extension and bounced to the fib .382.......

Then continued on to just shy of the 1.61 extension of the xa leg. This was a bullish Butterfly pattern.

We are getting close to a common bounce area which would be around the 18.00 area on TVIX. The Spy looks like it wants to make another move higher, so now that it is starting to break above a trend line, it should also come back down and retest it which could give the TVIX a little bounce (Maybe $2 up). But then it looks like it might take a dive down to $15 where it would be a buy again.