David,
Just heard your interview on Zanghi (?), glad to see you have BioMarin as your top pick (sorry I don't subscribe to your newsletter to have known sooner). Just a point about market for drugs I believe the numbers you mention are off unless you have insights outside of what the company has stated (but it sounded that you were speaking in generalizations). I believe I heard 300 people for enzyme product, 20k and 10k for other products. The numbers I have are (Developed World wide):
Naglazyme (MPS VI) - 1100
Aldurazyme (MPS I) - 3000
Phenoptin and Phenylase (PKU) - 50,000 30-50% treatable with Phenoptin, 100% with Phenylase (though probably only pursue ones that don’t respond to Phenoptin)
6R BH4 (Various Cardio Vascular Indications) - Millions
I believe they had in the past (year+) stated they identified OVER 300 patients for MPS VI but that is a while ago now and that was just identified not prevalence.
Personally, I think (barring major changes/investments in BH4) the company will be cash flow breakeven in 2007, especially if you factor in milestone payments but the company says 2008.
Sorry to be nit picky but I really like the prospects for the company and have been a long time shareholder (I owned in the Fred Price days). I thought the interview Allen Leon did with Mr. Bienaime near when he first joined the company was one of the best overviews of a company, in particular getting Mr. Bienaime to break down the investment potential for the company (for those that don't like to let their imaginations run wild on their own)
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