Replies to post #11229 on Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[kpf]

Joe

Maintain mix of K7 and K8, with overall unit shipments steady, around 6 to 7M per quarter until 90nm, when full conversion to K8 will take place

Yes. That is my assumption as well. 6-7 M will be good for returning to Cash-Flow neutral operations if ASPs will improve by trading up the procuct-mix. Not really for black ink. Conversion to 90nm (waferouts) should happen from Q3/04 to Q3/05.

Although I can see AMD to return to profitability then, the latter would be very limited in my book without additional capacities, because even in an optimistic perspective for 90nm-capacity in Dresden I do not see big bucks in eps - unless we will see spectacular yields and/or Banias-like dense caches in this node. Realistically, it would probably only allow AMD to muddle through until 65nm node somehow, but then financing a share of a fab will be everything but easy.

Iaw, I dont see AMD capitalizing enough from K8 without additional 90nm-capacities to be confident for the longer term horizon of the company.

In essence, from an investment standpoint, AMD might provide a perspective for less limited profitability by means of a medium-term manufactoring-strategy if it would be interested in double digit figures for the common anytime soon.

K.