nisse It may well take two or three years before shares in Triway will be listed in Hong Kong. One point is that at that stage it seems to be realistic to assume that each share will be worth between 5 and 10 times the pricing of the Pre-IPO. This will of course to some extent be reflected in the price of the shares of SIAF.
From one point of view a share is worth what you can sell it for today. But the net assets of SIAF per share are worth more than 10 times the current pps. SIAF is priced as if it were an out and out fraud. If it is the current pps could even be too high. If the numbers are more or correct the current pps is totally wrong. Everything hinges on whether the numbers are totally false or more or less correct.
You get close to 0.83 Tri-way dividend shares for every SIAF share you own. (18.3% of 100M Tri-way shares will be distributed to roughly 22M SIAF owned shares, or 18.3M divided by 22M)
The appraised value is exactly $340M for Tri-way or $3.40 per dividend share. The pre-IPO investors will pay close to $5 per Tr-way share (2 to 2.5x NTA).
The dividend is worth more than what SIAF is trading for currently. After the IPO it will most likely be worth $10+. And if Tri-way keeps growing to 300,000MT with a proper valuation in Hong Kong it could be worth up to $200 in the distant future.
How will those 40 usd be valued by a fund during those years.
You can book $3.40 per dividend share which represents minimum value.
This can get really weird, because I currently own another stock that is trading at close to 1% of appraised value.
So if it makes you feel better, you can use $5/share if that's what the pre-IPO investors pay for it. What really matters though, is what your dividend shares will be worth 3 years from now, in Hong Kong. After Tri-way ramps up and grows 100% per year, so you get a very high multiple.
Dumbass institutional players will never get it. Nor will they be buying SIAF on OTC. They care more about their reputation than anything else.
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
