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Doctor Detroit

07/11/17 11:14 AM

#12056 RE: turks #12055

I'm not so sure there is anything to miss. I really don't believe a lot of people are watching TTNP at this point. In my opinion...

How we got here:

1. Too much hype (by Braeburn) on the probuphine launch..."the most successful implant launch in history..." etc. Braeburn's flawed launch...doctors trained but did not prescribe. No sales force until January 2017. Insurance pre-authorization rules making just getting the medicine extremely difficult. The entire rehab/counseling industry speaking out against implants that might adversely affect their revenue stream.

2. The low float allowed shorts to entirely manage the price post-approval. Dumping by Broadfin and Braeburn didn't help.

3. Being included on the index funds was a double edged sword. We didn't get any bump up from buying (funds buy over time to control price movement), but we sure were punished getting kicked off (dumping in June).

4. Management has fumbled, bumbled and stumbled. Delayed Parkinson's trial. No EU deal. Spending precious resources on pre-clinical work for the DOD on a malaria implant that does not seem likely to be commercially viable unless the US goes to war in a jungle environment.

5. I couldn't recommend TTNP to a friend right now, because I'm not sure how they are going to fund next year. It seems dilution is likely, and so why not wait to see how much dilution there is before buying in.

How could management get out of this mess (without just selling the company):

1. Outlicense parkinsons now to GlaxoSmithKline. For GSK, it would essentially allow them to control implant sales for the product they once had the patent on. And it would be cheap for them: although technically pre-IND, this drug is 3 trials away from approval. Get some upfront license cash to take care of 2018. It would also lend some more credibility to the Pro Neura technology.

2. Sign the damn EU license deal. There may or may not be upfront cash, but add some certainty that ex-US development is actually happening.

3. Focus on hypo-thyroidism. That market dwarfs addiction treatment or parkinsons. This is the Pro Neura application that Titan wants to own as an approved drug without a partnership.

4. Stop spending time and money on non-essential development programs. Malaria, autism, etc. are great for the Gates Foundation, but this is a for profit enterprise (despite what management might believe).

5. Communicate honestly and transparently with stockholders. Take all questions on conference calls...it really irks me that this company is owned 80% by street holders, but they will only speak with analysts on conference calls. Fair enough if 80% were owned by institutions, but the stock price lives or dies by the individual investor right now, so stop treating them with contempt.