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Replies to post #21714 on Market Direction and Stock Trends
07/08/17 11:15 AM
We should expect to see the next turning point on our monthly models arrive this month in Dow Jones Industrials at least on a closing basis if not intraday requiring our diligence. The key week ahead for a turning point is 7/10. Last month produced a high at 2153503 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 2153503 to 2099422. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline. Of course the most broader trend has been bullish long-term given that the historical low took place back in 1896. However, the more important recent low formed at 646995 back during March 2009. Nevertheless, this market has made its historical major high so far this year followed by the historical high in 2017, which constituted a 121 year rally. As of the close of Thu. Jul. 6, 2017, the market is immediately in a neutral posture near-term for now on the daily level, but we are still above the previous month's low. Dow Jones Industrials closed today at 2132004 and is trading up about 7.88% for the year from last year's closing of 1976260. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 3 days, while we have made a low at 2130538 following the high established Mon. Jul. 3, 2017.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 3rd at 2156275, which was up 35 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 31st. We have been generally trading up since that low, which has been a sharp move of 5.80% percent in a stark panic type advance. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of July 3rd has exceeded the previous high of 2116911 made back during the week of February 27th. We have seen a rally so far from the last low at 1788356 made the week of October 31st, and only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune. Otherwise, the market remains in a bearish mode right now warranting caution. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 24 weeks overall. Interestingly, the Dow Jones Industrials has been in a bullish phase for the past 7 months since the low established back in November 2016.
Critical support still underlies this market at 1913878 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible.
Broadly, my comprehensive prognosis recognizes that the current directional movement since the low made back in August 2015 has been a long-term Bullish trend in Dow Jones Industrials which remains in motion as long as we hold above 1733105 on a monthly closing basis. It is incredibly important to identify the broader trend for that is the underlying tone. It is wise to take position counter-trend only with this understanding of what you are doing.
Consequently, this has been a 8 year rally in motion since 2009. Caution is advisable since this is also 8 years up from the low of given that was the major low 2009. We must pay attention to the closing for this year. If we close lower at year end, beneath 1976260, then we can see a pause in the uptrend into next year. Penetrating intraday last year's low of 1545056 will confirm a serious correction into next year. However, we have rallied to exceed last year's high last month. We need to see a closing above 1998763 at year-end to see a continued rally is possible into next year. Exceeding this year's high next year and holding last year's low intraday will signal the bullish trend is still intact. A breach of last year's low of 1545056 intraday will negate that outcome.
Inspecting the longer term yearly level, we see turning points where highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis should form will be, 2022, 2024 and 2026. There is a likelihood of a decline moving into 2022 with the opposite trend thereafter into 2024. This pattern becomes a possibility if last year's low of 1545056 is penetrated even intraday. Eyeing the volatility models suggest we should see a rise in price movement during January. We look to the turning points to ascertain the direction. Volatility targets reflect only volatility. However, our Panic Cycle targets for the period ahead to watch are during 2026. Keep in mind that a Panic Cycle differs from just volatility. This can be either an outside reversal or a sharp move in only one direction. Panic Cycles can be either up or down. Watch the oscillators and the reversals to determine the best indication of the potential direction.
Aiming on the immediate momentum is Bullish on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of June 26th's low. This is warning to pay attention since last month had closed higher so the upward momentum is weak on the monthly level. To date, the market has exceeded last year's high of 1998763. In order to maintain an upward advance, we need to close above last year's high at year end. On the weekly level, last month was an outside reversal to the downside which is warning of a bearish immediate trend. Overall, looking at the weekly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 35 weeks. The last weekly level low was 1788356, which formed during the week of October 31st. The last high on the weekly level was 2156275, which was created during the week of July 3rd. However, we still remain below key resistance 2139197 on a closing basis. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 22 months. The last monthly level low was 1537033, which formed during August 2015. The last high on the monthly level was 2153503, which was created during June.
