Replies to post #31361 on Plug Power Inc (PLUG)

[uksausage]

IMHO I think you over estimate the length of time before MEA fuel cell make it to market.

It took PLUG and many other technology leaders 5 years to go from first end customer trials to having proven serviceable solution for deployment to a wide customer base.

I am not under estimating this - I have worked in technollogy product introductions for a long time.

Assuming you have a product in the lab ready to be sold (big assumption in case of MRFC and ERC).

You need to ascertain a real market for your product and develop the 7 point product marketing plan (or at least the 4 Ps).
You need a sales force, contracts and service personnel in place
You need to secure initial customers
You need to develop manufacturing capability
you can then supply to first customers and over them to death with service until products start behaving as promised.
After first deliveries have proven themselves you follow through with the full delivery for that customer
You then can start selling to another customer based on the experience customer one has
you then have to fix your service and other processes to support multiple customers
etc etc

After 2-3 years you may win a big contract (like PLUG won Walmart) that introduces problems with scale etc

after three more years you are ready to be generally available.

now lets talk about Spectrum. Does they management really expect to sell FCEL and ERC technology to the Dade county school board?

I do expect they will fund a real marketing strategy and review which by the end of the year may produce the product marketing plan referred to. then start to recruit a sales team...

[Big daddy wags]

You are dramatically over-estimating the help the other two subsidiaries of Specious Global will actually give to Mantra and how fast they will give it, IMHO!! Mantra tech to market this year? Don't make me laugh!! Not even this decade! 2025 possibly, if Larry can continue to find grants.
Remember, Ponder first indicated that there would be no move to further mvtg tech but getting AWS up and moving was first priority.
But then I guess he realized he shouldn't immediately alienate the old mvtg die-hards so he said Kristof would be in charge of Mantra.
You nor I are privy to what Ponder is actually going to do as far as money from one entity being used to subsidize another but I would be willing to make another wager here that Ponder IS NOT going to just allow all profits (if any) and that's a big if at this point as well, to be given to Larry to squander away like he has done for the past ten years.
Ponder would want to solidify the strength of the money making subsidiary(ies) before risking any possible profits on Larry.
IMO Larry has probably already been told, "Hey! If you can secure grants to cover costs to start up operations again, go for it. But don't look to us for at least 3-5 years!

[Ecomike]

I prefer light weight stocks that are small, fast and nimble, like Plug fuel cell competitor Mvtg-Mantra Energy, while PLUG is like the Titanic, can't get out of its own way as it slams into an ice burg that it can clearly see coming head on, or becomes a beached whale.Mantra has had two years now that it reported profits, most recently the last quarters and it did with no sales. The next Mvtg quarterly, a 10-K is going to make Plug look like the Titanic, as Plug just keeps taking on more water and sinking deeper.