Interesting conundrum. You know that I am convinced that, either through settlement or the appeal adjudication, a significant windfall will come to GERS/KK. You also know I am not convinced that KK will use it wisely or in the interest of the common shareholder.
My play is on the notoriety associated with a tiny company coming into such a windfall, the validation of their patents and implications for future revenue. Part of this play is the expectation that there will be a lag time (possibly significant) between announcement of the award/windfall and GERS' receipt of it. KK cannot do anything foolish or common shareholder unfriendly until he has the cash in-hand. It is during this lag time that the PPS could/should soar based on expectations (rumors if you will) of what KK will do with the windfall and the recognition (news if you will) of his actions once he has the cash. You have heard the old saying -- buy on rumor, sell on news.
The conundrum. Given my belief I will be happy with the PPS falling before August 3 so I can increase my position. But given the size of my position I will be happy if for some reason the PPS takes off from here. There are too many people involved, directly or indirectly, in this mediation for the terms of a settlement not to leak and generate a rumor that will stimulate furious buying. People are basically greedy and most unethical; human behavior may lead to such an outcome. Obviously, I would like to increase my position before that occurs.
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