Replies to post #28173 on Capstone Green Energy Corp (fka CGRNQ)

[hillzman]

R/S pretty much puts the kibosh on any appreciable positive sp movement. Once again a payoff for shorts. CPST has lost more than 80% since the last r/s. IMO there seems little point to another r/s if they can't improve their performance enough to at least break even.

[Love Me Do]

REVENUE UPDATE

As Of June 19, 2017


FY-2017 PROD + SERV = EST ---> ACTUAL
Q1: 15.40MW + $6M = $20.63M ---> 19.1M
Q2: 12.69MW + $6M = $18.06M ---> 15.0M
Q3: 15.95MW + $6M = $21.15M ---> 20.2M
Q4: 16.30MW + $7M = $22.49M ---> 22.9M
Need To Average Over $25M Per Quarter
Using $950K Per MW For Product Revenue
FY-2017 TOTAL REVENUE = $77.2M


Difference Between FY-2017 Estimates In
Product Revenue Is $6M More Than Actual.
Difference Could Be Some Cancelled Orders,
Or Could Have Been Shifted Into FY-2018 Q1.

* Possible Adjustments Of $6M From FY-2017
May Show Up And Added To FY-2018 Q1.
Added Below In Red Is A Possible Alternative
That Includes $6M, Which Is Highly Unlikely.


FY-2018 PROD + SERV = EST ---> TBA
Q1: 06.92MW + $7M = $13.75M ---> TBA *
Q1: 00.60MW + $7M = $07.59M ---> TBA
Q2: 11.38MW + $7M = $18.10M ---> TBA
Q3: 10.57MW + $7M = $17.31M ---> TBA
Q4: 02.00MW + $7M = $08.95M ---> TBA
Need To Average Over $25M Per Quarter
Using $975K Per MW For Product Revenue
Even If Off A Little - Q1 Is Looking Very Weak
Usually The Typical Surprise After Any Dilution


PRODUCT REV WILL NEVER HIT $15.00M
Q1: Product Rev Est = $06.75M ..... Not $15M *
Q1: Product Rev Est = $00.59M ..... Not $15M
Q2: Product Rev Est = $11.10M ..... Not $15M
Q3: Product Rev Est = $10.31M ..... Not $15M
Q4: Product Rev Est = $01.95M ..... Not $15M
Need To Avg $15M In Product Rev Per Qtr
At The Same Time Avg $10M in Serv+P&A


FUTURE FY REVENUE ESTIMATES
2016 Total Fiscal Year - Actual = $85.20M
2017 Total Fiscal Year Rev Est = $77.17M
2018 Total Fiscal Year Rev Est = $58.11M *
2018 Total Fiscal Year Rev Est = $51.95M
2019 Total Fiscal Year Rev Est = $28.57M
Need To Average Over $100M Per Year
With A Gross Margin Average Of 25%


AUTHORIZED & OUTSTANDING
AS = 515,00,000 ----- OS = 39,000,000
AS Kept High To Anticipate 2nd R-Split
OS Is Equivalent To 780M Pre-Split Shs



SUMMARY

Fiscal Year Total Revenue
FY-2016 Rev Came In At $85M
FY-2017 Rev Came In At $77M
FY-2018 Looking To Be Under $60M
FY-2019 Looking To Be Under $30M
Need A FY Rev Of $100M For EBIDTA

Fiscal Year Total Gross Margin
FY-2016 GM Was Only 15%
FY-2017 GM Was Only 2%
Need A FY GM Of 25% For EBIDTA

They Are Cleverly Increasing The Needed
Total Gross Margine Percentage In Order
To Show A Lower Required Revenue Amount


JMO