Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 06/06 2017 EOD
All in it's looking like near-term consolidation with a possible positive bias. Some signs of weakening exist though and duration could change that positive bias to a negative bias.
There was a New $12 Million Revolver Credit PR today.
There was a pre-market 8K buy for $0.6750.
B/a just before open was 1.1K:5.9K $0.62/$0.70.
09:30-10:29 opened the day with a 535 sell for $0.66 & $0.66 x 2, $0.6804 x 75. B/a just after open was 3K:23 $0.66/7 (offers backed by presented 1,9K $0.6850). Then came 9:31's 100 $0.6850, 9:34's b/a 3K:1,8K $0.66/$0.6850, 9:37's 10.7K $0.6850 (10K)/$0.66, 9:44's b/a 25:2.8K $0.6750/$0.6850 (bids backed by presented 4.3K $0.66), 9:47's 2K $0.6700/10 (200), 9:50's 1K $0.6299 (230)/00, 9:52's 700 $0.6850 (500)/$0.67, 9:53's 300 $0.6850, 9:55's b/a 1K:1.7K $0.67/$0.6850, 9:55's 200 $0.6850/$0.67, 9:58's 3.7K $0.6787 (3K)/00, 10:00's 4K $0.6742 (2.9K)/00 (1.1K), 10:00's b/a 10.2K:400 $0.6600/99, 10:03's 2.6K $0.6700 (2.5K)/70, 10:06's b/a 8.8K:1.1K $0.67/$0.6840, 10:14's 200 $0.67, 10:17 b/a 8.8K:1.1K $0.67/$0.6840, 10:18's 800 $0.67, 10:21's 300 $0.6840/$0.67, 10:27's 1.7K $0.6839 (1,3K)/$0.67, 10:28's 100 $0.67, and the period ended on 10:29's 425 $0.6793/$0.6829/$0.67.
10:30-13:20 during the initial three no-trades minutes had 10:30's b/a of 9.5K:900 $0.67/$0.6840. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.6750/$0.6850, with very slowly rising lows and falling highs, after a step up on 10:33's 31.6K $0.6775/$0.68 (9.4K)/$0.6786/$0.6840/00 (2.8K)/$0.6751 (900)/$0.68 (8K)/$0.6750 (2.3K)/$0.68 (300). B/a at 10:39 was 500:80 $0.6751/$0.6840 (offers backed by presented 900 $0.6850), 10:49 700:80 $0.6751/$0.6840 (offers backed by presented 200 $0.6849), 11:02 700:80 $0.6751/$0.6840 (offers backed by presented 200 $0.6849), 11:17 200:80 $0.6751/$0.6840 (offers backed by presented 100 $0.6848), 11:32 400:80 $0.6752/$0.6840 (offers backed by presented 1.2K $0.6848), 11:47 200:300 $0.6752/$0.6810, 12:02 15.3K:300 $0.6750/$0.6809, 12:17 15.4K:300 $0.6750/$0.6808, 12:32 15.5K:100 $0.6750/$0.6807, 12:47 15.5K:100 $0.6750/$0.6807, 13:02 200:100 $0.6753/$0.6806, 13:17 7.7K:100 $0.6750/$0.6806. The period ended on 13:20's 16K $0.6750 (12.7K blk)/79/50 (2.4K)/51/50/78 (100).
13:21-14:26 began extremely low/no-volume $0.6700/$0.6725 (one $0.6810 x 500 trade and most trades $0.67) on 13:21's 400 $0.6778. B/a at 13:32 was 800:10 $0.67/$0.6808 (offers backed by presented 3.3K $0.6811), 13:55 8.5K:10 $0.67/$0.6808 (offers backed by presented 3.3K $0.6811), 14:02 8.5K:10 $0.67/$0.6808 (offers backed by presented 3.3K $0.6811), 14:17 8.7K:10 $0.67/$0.6808 (offers backed by presented 3.3K $0.6811). The period ended on 14:26 's 200 $0.67.
14:27-15:20, after four no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.67/$0.6850, but with many one-minute volume spikes that hit the highs, on 14:31's 2.6K $0.6811 (2K)/$0.67. B/a at 14:32 was 8K:1.2K $0.67/$0.6811. B/a at 14:40 was 7.2K:1.2K $0.6700/$0.6811. B/a at 14:47 was 6.7K:1.2K $0.6700/$0.6811, 15:07 6.1K:1.2K $0.67/$0.6811, 15:17 25:100 $0.67/8 (bids backed by presented 7.2K $0.66). The period ended on 15:20's 500 $0.6799.
15:21-15:59, after three no-trades minutes, began very low/medium-volume $0.6643/$0.68, with slowly rising lows, after 15:24's 800 $0.6615. B/a at 15:29 was 100:600 $0.6602/$0.6811, 15:47 100:100 $0.6603/$0.68. The period and day ended on 15:59's 800 $0.67 (300)/$0.6699 (50) and set the official low because there was no 16:00 MM closing trade.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 10 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K+) totaling 73,862, 40.27% of day's volume, with a $0.6773 VWAP. For the volume I think the count is a wee bit high, likely because the MM had to chunk a few larger orders, increasing the count. This seems supported by the percentage of day's volume, which is fairly high. The VWAP is slightly above the day's $0.6767 but is so close I won't try to guess who was doing what to whom. I suspect that's a result of lower volume on an relatively very flattish day.
Given this I'm flummoxed by the buy percentages (see the breakdown). But that combined with the low short percentage may offer a clue. I suspect a part of these larger trades were shorters/MMs covering - the shorters to get more neutral before quarterly reporting by Capstone and the MMs just normal taking advantage of attractive covering prices.
Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:29 42601 $0.6600 $0.6850 $28,844.23 $0.6771 23.23% 69.07% Incl 09:37 $0.6849 6,400
13:20 83328 $0.6750 $0.6850 $56,468.35 $0.6777 45.43% 52.30% Incl 10:33 $0.6800 9,380 7,900
13:10 $0.6750 7,882 13:20 12,700
14:26 14239 $0.6700 $0.6810 $9,586.74 $0.6733 7.76% 47.44% Incl 13:22 $0.6750 7,300
15:20 29847 $0.6700 $0.6850 $20,161.78 $0.6755 16.27% 50.31% Incl 15:11 $0.6700 5,100 15:18 $0.6800 4,500
15:59 12100 $0.6615 $0.6811 $8,177.90 $0.6759 6.60% 51.81% Incl 15:50 $0.6800 4,700
The buy percentage followed the fairly typical trend of high to low as the day progressed but the VWAP was close to static.
On the traditional TA front, movements were: __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 0.00% 2.33% 0.74% -0.01% -31.93%
Prior 7.32% 5.39% 3.85% 3.08% 13.01%
This is the fifth day of generally improved metrics but the close and reducing volume breaks the recent trend. Today fits with yesterday's { ... and two consecutive strongly positive days suggests there may be some more leg left in the up. The rate of volume rise declined for the second consecutive day though so it may be a short leg left. This seems especially likely considering the VWAP and buy percentage movements above. } It still matches if we just change to "lack of VWAP moves above".
On my minimal chart, as with yesterday, { the most significant thing is price challenged the descending channel's (descending blue lines) resistance and was rejected. } We had a higher high and low but on reducing volume too, suggesting waning strength in the up move. Still in play is also yesterday's { ... this suggests a leg down could begin } and { ... another challenge could be mounted immediately. }
Trade was at and above the rising fast EMA's $0.6606, which above the rising slow EMA's $0.6505.
A concern exists that we are pushing the experimental 13-period Bollinger band upper limit - for the third day now. In the past this has not ended well most of the time.
The volume bars ceased making the desired cupping pattern without completing it or the rise it might have portended.
On my one-year chart, for the sixteenth consecutive day we did not trade completely below all SMAs, all of which, but for the rising 10 (2nd day) and (1st day) 20-day SMAs, are still falling and still all in order: 10 < 20 < 50 < 200. For the second day we traded completely above the 10-day SMA and our low moved up and away from the 10-day SMA.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in every oscillator. Above neutral are RSI, momentum, Williams %R (entered overbought), full stochastic, Below neutral are accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me) and ADX-related.
Today had weakening in accumulation/distribution (below neutral) and RSI (above neutral). Improvement occurred in MFI (above neutral and untrusted by me), momentum (above neutral), Williams %R (in overbought), and full stochastic (just below overbought). ADX-related was flat and below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6060 and $0.6781 ($0.6078 and $0.6732 yesterday), continued diverging with a falling lower limit and faster-rising upper limit, yielding a rising mid-point.
All in, my intra-day breakdown results and the weakening of some of the OLHC and volume metrics would keep me cautious while the conventional TA is mixed with a lot of positives indications and a few concerning ones - pushing upper Bollinger limits, reducing volume -31%, second day minimal chart descending channel resistance holds, visual pattern looks like the start of rolling over. I'm going to have to stick with yesterday's { It looks like there's still some upside left, or at least little near-term likelihood of downside }, but with the caution previously expressed increasing. I'm also thinking the near-term upside magnitude and likelihood are decreasing.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, normally not good, but today I read them as positive because the short percentage moved just below my desired range's (needs re-check) low end and the buy percentage moved into an area suggesting some near-term appreciation is slightly more likely than not.
The spread contracted into a range suggesting consolidation.
The VWAP rose for the second consecutive day.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements, improved again from yesterday's 18 negatives and 6 positives to 17 and 7 respectively. Change since 05/02 is -$0.0379, -5.30%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.2079%, -0.3689%, -0.6415%, -0.7567%, -0.8905%, -0.7494%, -0.6808%, -0.6688%, -0.7140%, and -0.8520%.
All in, there's no strong signs of near-term weakness and we do have some mild positive indications. Based on this I'm thinking we've entered a short-term consolidation with a possible mild positive bias. But duration may cause the mild positive to become mild negative.
Bill
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